Aucas
vs
Libertad
1 – 0 Full time
| 32′ | Luis Gustavino | ||
| 46′ | R. MontiM. A. Carcelen Carabali | ||
| 63′ | C. ZambranoR. Bolanos | ||
| 69′ | X. E. Pineda AranaJ. Bravo | ||
| 69′ | A. ChereE. Caicedo | ||
| 71′ | Piero Guzmán | ||
| 76′ | V. BrandaJ. Guisamano | ||
| 76′ | D. CoronelH. Batalla | ||
| 77′ | R. Quinonez | ||
| 79′ | Y. QuinonezG. J. Cortez Casierra | ||
| 89′ | M. BurdissoM. Vera | ||
| 90′ | Orlin Quinonez |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 520 | Accurate passes | 281 |
Aucas vs Libertad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aucas vs Libertad
| Probability | Aucas | Draw | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.7% | 32.5% | 35.8% |
| Market | 61.3% | 23.7% | 15.0% |
| Final | 53.9% | 25.9% | 20.2% |
| Edge | -29.6% | +8.8% | +20.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aucas and Libertad expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Aucas and Libertad attack and defence ratings
Aucas
Libertad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aucas vs Libertad: result vs prediction
Aucas 1 – 0 Libertad
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aucas vs Libertad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 53.9% | 1.85 | -29.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 53.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Libertad | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aucas win | 12.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 68.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 0-1 | 11.9% |
Aucas vs Libertad stats
Aucas and Libertad recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aucas and Libertad going into this match
Aucas record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aucas vs Libertad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Libertad | Aucas | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Libertad | Aucas | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-06 | Aucas | Libertad | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aucas vs Libertad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.3%, draw 23.7%, away 15.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.52 | 3.95 | 6.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 3.96 | 6.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.25 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 3.80 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 3.82 | 5.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.03 | 6.23 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 3.50 | 5.03 |
| Unibet | 1.49 | 4.10 | 6.40 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .