Libertad
vs
Macara
1 – 0 Full time
Libertad vs Macara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Libertad vs Macara
| Probability | Libertad | Draw | Macara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 31.1% | 30.3% |
| Market | 28.4% | 29.7% | 41.9% |
| Final | 31.0% | 30.1% | 39.0% |
| Edge | +10.2% | +1.4% | -11.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Libertad and Macara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Libertad and Macara attack and defence ratings
Libertad
Macara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Libertad vs Macara: result vs prediction
Libertad 1 – 0 Macara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Libertad vs Macara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 39.0% | 2.57 | -11.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 31.0% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Macara | 39.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.2% |
| No | 52.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Macara win | 12.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 69.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.6% | |
| 1-0 | 11.2% |
Libertad vs Macara stats
Libertad and Macara recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Libertad and Macara going into this match
Libertad record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Macara record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Libertad vs Macara head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Macara | Libertad | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Macara | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Libertad | Macara | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-17 | Libertad | Macara | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-15 | Macara | Libertad | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Libertad vs Macara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 29.7%, away 41.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.10 | 2.28 |
| 888Sport | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.20 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 2.75 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 2.99 | 2.19 |
| Pinnacle | 3.34 | 3.16 | 2.30 |
| SBO | 2.92 | 2.92 | 2.15 |
| Superbet | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .