Emelec
vs
Libertad
1 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | O. Quinonez | ||
| 20′ | O. Herrera | ||
| 23′ | B. Caicedo | ||
| 23′ | A. Leguizamon | ||
| 23′ | R. Saya | ||
| 32′ | E. Medran | ||
| 46′ | O. QuinonezC. Gruezo | ||
| 46′ | C. ValenciaJ. Bravo | ||
| 46′ | T. ArceL. Fragozo | ||
| 61′ | J. Bravo | ||
| 62′ | O. HerreraL. Gomez | ||
| 73′ | A. ChereE. Caicedo | ||
| 73′ | V. BrandaH. Batalla | ||
| 75′ | J. RuizG. Napoli | ||
| 75′ | E. SeguraS. Valencia | ||
| 78′ | G. J. Cortez CasierraC. Orejuela | ||
| 82′ | R. SayaJ. Ayovi | ||
| 88′ | A. Leguizamon | ||
| 88′ | A. Leguizamon | ||
| 90′ | B. Caicedo | ||
| 90′ | E. Caicedo | ||
| 90′ | R. Morinigo |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 4 | Saves | 5 |
| 320 | Accurate passes | 268 |
Emelec vs Libertad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emelec vs Libertad
| Probability | Emelec | Draw | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 33.9% | 37.1% |
| Market | 55.6% | 26.2% | 18.2% |
| Final | 48.9% | 28.1% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -26.6% | +7.7% | +18.9% |
Why Emelec
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Emelec and Libertad expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Emelec and Libertad attack and defence ratings
Emelec
Libertad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Emelec vs Libertad: result vs prediction
Emelec 1 – 2 Libertad
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Placement Group - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emelec vs Libertad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 48.9% | 2.04 | -26.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 48.9% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Libertad | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emelec win | 10.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 71.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.7% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.7% |
Emelec vs Libertad stats
Emelec and Libertad recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emelec and Libertad going into this match
Emelec record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
Libertad record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec vs Libertad head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-01 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-05 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-27 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Emelec vs Libertad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 26.1%, away 18.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.55 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.44 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.66 | 5.33 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .