Libertad
vs
Leones del Norte
3 – 0 Full time
Libertad vs Leones del Norte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Libertad vs Leones del Norte
| Probability | Libertad | Draw | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.9% | 30.4% | 20.7% |
| Market | 38.0% | 30.3% | 31.7% |
| Final | 40.7% | 30.4% | 28.9% |
| Edge | +10.9% | +0.1% | -11.0% |
Why Libertad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Libertad below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Libertad and Leones del Norte expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.16
Libertad and Leones del Norte attack and defence ratings
Libertad
Leones del Norte
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte: result vs prediction
Libertad 3 – 0 Leones del Norte
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Placement Group - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Libertad vs Leones del Norte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 40.7% | 2.46 | +10.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 40.7% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Leones del Norte | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.0% |
| No | 58.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.5% |
| 1-1 | 13.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.8% |
Libertad vs Leones del Norte stats
Libertad and Leones del Norte recent form
| Libertad |
WLWDLW |
| Leones del Norte |
DLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Libertad and Leones del Norte going into this match
Libertad record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Libertad | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Leones del Norte | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 30.3%, away 31.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.08 | 2.95 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.05 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 2.97 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.05 | 3.04 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 2.87 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
37 snapshots recorded, from .