Libertad
vs
Guayaquil City FC
4 – 0 Full time
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC
| Probability | Libertad | Draw | Guayaquil City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.6% | 24.1% | 19.3% |
| Market | 49.4% | 28.1% | 22.5% |
| Final | 51.2% | 27.1% | 21.7% |
| Edge | +7.2% | -3.9% | -3.2% |
Why Libertad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Libertad below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Libertad and Guayaquil City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Libertad and Guayaquil City FC attack and defence ratings
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC: result vs prediction
Libertad 4 – 0 Guayaquil City FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Placement Group - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 51.2% | 1.95 | +7.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 51.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Guayaquil City FC | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 43.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC stats
Libertad and Guayaquil City FC recent form
| Libertad |
WWLWDL |
| Guayaquil City FC |
WDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Libertad and Guayaquil City FC going into this match
Libertad record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guayaquil City FC record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Guayaquil City FC | Libertad | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-10 | Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-06 | Guayaquil City FC | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.6%, draw 28.2%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.38 | 4.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.24 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.48 | 4.36 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 2.89 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .