Emelec
vs
Guayaquil City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Emelec
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.47.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Emelec is the favourite, not a value bet.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
| Probability | Emelec | Draw | Guayaquil City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 24.2% | 28.9% |
| Market | 53.3% | 26.7% | 20.0% |
| Final | 51.7% | 26.1% | 22.2% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.6% | +2.2% |
Why Emelec
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.47.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (our 51.7% × 1.80 − 1).
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC match preview
Emelec faces Guayaquil City FC in their upcoming Liga Pro match on October 25, 2026. Emelec holds a 52% probability of winning, while Guayaquil City FC has a 22% chance, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Emelec stand at 1.90, compared to Guayaquil City FC's 1.47. Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Emelec has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Guayaquil City FC has also struggled, with two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record from the last ten encounters shows Emelec and Guayaquil City FC each with two wins and six draws. The model indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Emelec and Guayaquil City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Emelec and Guayaquil City FC attack and defence ratings
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 51.7% | 1.93 | -1.6% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 51.7% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Guayaquil City FC | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% |
| No | 33.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emelec win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC stats
Emelec and Guayaquil City FC recent form
| Emelec |
WLLLWD |
| Guayaquil City FC |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emelec and Guayaquil City FC season so far
Emelec record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Guayaquil City FC record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2026-08-10 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-22 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Copa Ecuador | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-04 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-30 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-12 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-24 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2022-03-05 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-31 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.2%, draw 26.9%, away 20.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.53 | 4.79 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.17 | 4.27 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.10 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .