Guayaquil City FC
vs
Libertad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guayaquil City FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Guayaquil City FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
| Probability | Guayaquil City FC | Draw | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 24.8% | 43.6% |
| Market | 44.6% | 28.5% | 26.9% |
| Final | 41.3% | 27.6% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -0.9% | +4.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.2% per unit staked (our 41.3% × 2.10 − 1).
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad match preview
Guayaquil City FC faces Libertad in a Liga Pro match on November 1, 2026. According to our model, Guayaquil City FC has a 41% chance of winning, while Libertad has a 31% chance, with a 28% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Guayaquil City FC, with expected goals of 1.51 for them and 1.79 for Libertad.
In terms of recent form, Guayaquil City FC has recorded a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Libertad, on the other hand, has had a stronger showing with four wins and two losses in the same period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 64%, and both teams are expected to score 66% of the time. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad attack and defence ratings
Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guayaquil City FC | 41.3% | 2.42 | -3.2% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guayaquil City FC | 41.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Libertad | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% |
| No | 34.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guayaquil City FC win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 68.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.5% |
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad stats
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad recent form
| Guayaquil City FC |
WLWDWL |
| Libertad |
LWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad season so far
Guayaquil City FC record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 4-0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Guayaquil City FC | Libertad | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-10 | Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-06 | Guayaquil City FC | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 28.5%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.34 | 3.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.36 | 3.52 |