Leones del Norte
vs
Guayaquil City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones del Norte
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leones del Norte is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC
| Probability | Leones del Norte | Draw | Guayaquil City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| Market | 52.4% | 27.4% | 20.2% |
| Final | 51.0% | 27.2% | 21.8% |
| Edge | -1.4% | -0.2% | +1.7% |
Why Leones del Norte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.21.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.2% per unit staked (our 51.0% × 1.80 − 1).
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC match preview
Leones del Norte faces Guayaquil City FC in a Liga Pro matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Leones del Norte has a 51% probability of winning, while Guayaquil City FC stands at 22%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Leones del Norte are 1.66, compared to 1.21 for Guayaquil City FC, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Leones del Norte, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Leones del Norte has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last six matches, while Guayaquil City FC has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Leones del Norte with three wins, Guayaquil City FC with two, and five matches ending in a draw. Our model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC attack and defence ratings
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 51.0% | 1.96 | -1.4% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 51.0% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Guayaquil City FC | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.2% |
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC stats
Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC recent form
| Leones del Norte |
WWLLDL |
| Guayaquil City FC |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC season so far
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guayaquil City FC record
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Guayaquil City FC | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Guayaquil City FC | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Guayaquil City FC | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-23 | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Guayaquil City FC | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-18 | Guayaquil City FC | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-29 | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-30 | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.4%, draw 27.4%, away 20.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.58 | 4.83 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.22 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .