Emelec
vs
Leones del Norte
Garuda Lions Prediction: Emelec
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Emelec is the favourite, not a value bet.
Emelec vs Leones del Norte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emelec vs Leones del Norte
| Probability | Emelec | Draw | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.5% | 27.9% | 30.6% |
| Market | 46.2% | 29.1% | 24.7% |
| Final | 45.0% | 28.8% | 26.2% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -0.3% | +1.5% |
Why Emelec
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (our 45.0% × 2.25 − 1).
Emelec vs Leones del Norte match preview
Emelec faces Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro with a probability of winning set at 45%, while the chances for a draw and a Leones del Norte victory stand at 29% and 26%, respectively. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Emelec are 1.48, compared to 1.24 for Leones del Norte, indicating a competitive matchup.
In terms of recent form, Emelec has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. Leones del Norte's recent performance shows one win, two losses, and three draws in their last six outings. Historically, in their last four encounters, Emelec has secured two wins, while Leones del Norte has one victory and one match ended in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Emelec and Leones del Norte expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Emelec and Leones del Norte attack and defence ratings
Emelec
Leones del Norte
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emelec vs Leones del Norte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 45.0% | 2.22 | -1.2% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 45.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Leones del Norte | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emelec win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Emelec vs Leones del Norte stats
Emelec and Leones del Norte recent form
| Emelec |
LWLLLW |
| Leones del Norte |
WLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emelec and Leones del Norte season so far
Emelec record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec vs Leones del Norte head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2026-08-30 | Emelec | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Copa Ecuador | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Emelec vs Leones del Norte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 29.1%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.28 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.14 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 3.39 | 3.96 |