Leones del Norte
vs
Libertad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones del Norte
1 – 0 Predicted score · 4% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leones del Norte is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones del Norte vs Libertad
| Probability | Leones del Norte | Draw | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.1% | 23.8% | 63.1% |
| Market | 47.1% | 27.8% | 25.1% |
| Final | 38.6% | 26.8% | 34.6% |
| Edge | -8.5% | -1.0% | +9.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -22.5% per unit staked (our 38.6% × 2.01 − 1).
Leones del Norte vs Libertad match preview
Leones del Norte faces Libertad in an upcoming Liga Pro match, with Leones del Norte holding a 39% probability of winning, while Libertad stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Leones del Norte, occurring with a 4% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Leones del Norte will generate 0.73, compared to Libertad's 1.86, indicating a potential challenge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Leones del Norte has struggled with two losses, a draw, and only one win in their last five matches. Conversely, Libertad has shown stronger performance, with three wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters is balanced, with each team securing one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leones del Norte and Libertad expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Leones del Norte and Libertad attack and defence ratings
Leones del Norte
Libertad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones del Norte vs Libertad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 38.6% | 2.59 | -8.5% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 38.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Libertad | 34.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win | 3.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9.2% | |
| Loss | 86.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Leones del Norte vs Libertad stats
Leones del Norte and Libertad recent form
| Leones del Norte |
LLDLDW |
| Libertad |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones del Norte and Libertad season so far
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Libertad | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Libertad | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Leones del Norte | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 27.8%, away 25.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.40 | 3.68 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.47 | 3.76 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 2.97 | 3.22 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .