Leones del Norte
vs
Emelec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones del Norte
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Leones del Norte vs Emelec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones del Norte vs Emelec
| Probability | Leones del Norte | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 31.4% | 27.8% |
| Market | 46.5% | 30.5% | 23.0% |
| Final | 45.1% | 30.7% | 24.2% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +0.9% | +4.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec match preview
Leones del Norte faces Emelec in a Liga Pro matchup with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Leones del Norte has a 41% probability of winning, while Emelec stands at 28%, and a draw is estimated at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Leones del Norte, with expected goals of 1.24 for them and 0.98 for Emelec.
In terms of recent form, Leones del Norte has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Emelec has seen a mix of results with two wins, three losses, and one draw. The last three encounters between these teams have resulted in one win each and one draw. Our confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leones del Norte and Emelec expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Leones del Norte and Emelec attack and defence ratings
Leones del Norte
Emelec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones del Norte vs Emelec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 45.1% | 2.22 | -5.7% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 45.1% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Emelec | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 12.3% | |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
Leones del Norte vs Emelec stats
Leones del Norte and Emelec recent form
| Leones del Norte |
LDLDWL |
| Emelec |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones del Norte and Emelec season so far
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Emelec | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Copa Ecuador | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.9%, draw 30.5%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.08 | 3.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 2.80 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 2.95 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 2.95 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 2.94 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.08 | 4.18 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.78 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 2.88 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .