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Liga Pro · Full time ·Placement Group - 2

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec

3 – 2 Full time

43′Ronie Carrillo
45′Ronie Carrillo
45′S LaurinoPablo Mancilla
50′Dixon Arroyo
53′Angelo Mina
57′Ronie Carrillo
62′Diego Dorregaray
71′Diego Dorregaray
72′Ronie CarrilloLuca Klimowicz
72′Teodoro ArceGonzalo Nápoli
72′P. González
76′Ignacio GuerricoAriel Mina
76′Jefferson ValverdeVíctor Griffith
83′Dixon ArroyoKevin Sambonino
90′Jaime Ayoví
90′Diego Dorregaray
90′Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomezluis Fragozo
90′Kevin SamboninoAnderson Naula
90′Junior AyoviEsnaider Cabezas
90′Erick Patricio Ladines CalvacheJoshue·Quinonez

Estadio Christian Benitez, GuayaquilReferee: Oswaldo Contreras

Guayaquil City FC 38%
Draw 29%
Emelec 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 3
49 Possession % 51
5 Corners 3
12 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1
1 Saves 3
339 Accurate passes 317

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGuayaquil City FCDrawEmelec
Model54.9%26.4%18.8%
Market32.5%30.3%37.3%
Final38.1%29.3%32.7%
Edge+5.6%-1.0%-4.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Guayaquil City FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Guayaquil City FC below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Guayaquil City ↓ / Emelec → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 13% 2 11% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Guayaquil City FC and Emelec expected goals

Guayaquil City FC 1.69
Emelec 0.90

Total expected goals: 2.58

Guayaquil City FC and Emelec attack and defence ratings

Guayaquil City FC

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Emelec

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec: result vs prediction

Guayaquil City FC 3 – 2 Emelec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Placement Group - 2 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Guayaquil City FC 38.1% 2.63 +5.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.97 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.7% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.1% 2.22 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Guayaquil City FC38.1%
Draw29.3%
Emelec32.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.3%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)61.9%
Handicap -1Guayaquil City FC win30.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss45.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
1-011.6%
2-010.7%

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec stats

Guayaquil City FC and Emelec recent form

newest first
Guayaquil City FC DWLLWW
Emelec LLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Guayaquil City FC and Emelec going into this match

league record before kick-off

Guayaquil City FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Emelec record

  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Guayaquil City FC wins 6Draws 3Emelec wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-10Guayaquil City FCEmelecLiga Pro0-0
2026-04-18EmelecGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro1-3
2025-10-22Guayaquil City FCEmelecCopa Ecuador0-0
2023-11-04Guayaquil City FCEmelecLiga Pro0-0
2023-05-30EmelecGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro0-0
2023-02-12EmelecGuayaquil City FCFriendlies Clubs2-0
2022-07-24Guayaquil City FCEmelecLiga Pro0-0
2022-03-05EmelecGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro2-2
2021-10-31Guayaquil City FCEmelecLiga Pro0-1
2021-05-16EmelecGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 30.3%, away 37.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.94 3.08 2.46
Bet365 2.80 3.10 2.55
BetVictor 2.55 2.70 2.30
Betano 2.87 3.10 2.50
Betfair 2.80 3.00 2.40
Dafabet 2.85 3.05 2.49
Marathonbet 2.84 2.98 2.38
Pinnacle 2.95 3.06 2.61
SBO 2.70 2.83 2.34
William Hill 2.75 2.80 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.82 ▲ +0.14
X 3.02 ▲ +0.10
2 2.46 ▼ -0.20

39 snapshots recorded, from .