Guayaquil City FC
vs
Emelec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guayaquil City FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
| Probability | Guayaquil City FC | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 26.4% | 18.8% |
| Market | 31.6% | 30.4% | 38.0% |
| Final | 37.4% | 29.4% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +23.2% | -4.0% | -19.2% |
Why Guayaquil City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Guayaquil City FC below the model: +23.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec match preview
Guayaquil City FC faces Emelec in the Liga Pro on October 10, 2026. Guayaquil City FC has a 37% probability of winning, while Emelec stands at 33%, with a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Guayaquil City FC, with a 12% probability. Both teams show a near-equal likelihood of scoring, at 49%, and there is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Guayaquil City FC has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Emelec has two wins, one draw, and two losses. The expected goals for Guayaquil City FC is 1.68, compared to Emelec's 0.90. Historically, in their last two encounters, Guayaquil City FC has one win and one draw against Emelec, who has yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guayaquil City FC and Emelec expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Guayaquil City FC and Emelec attack and defence ratings
Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guayaquil City FC | 37.4% | 2.68 | +23.2% | 3.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guayaquil City FC | 37.4% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Emelec | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guayaquil City FC win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec stats
Guayaquil City FC and Emelec recent form
| Guayaquil City FC |
DWLLWW |
| Emelec |
LLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guayaquil City FC and Emelec season so far
Guayaquil City FC record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-22 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Copa Ecuador | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-04 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-30 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-12 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-24 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2022-03-05 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-31 | Guayaquil City FC | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2021-05-16 | Emelec | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 30.4%, away 38.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 3.08 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.39 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 2.98 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.09 | 2.49 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 2.78 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
37 snapshots recorded, from .