Libertad
vs
Emelec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Libertad
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.77.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Libertad vs Emelec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Libertad vs Emelec
| Probability | Libertad | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.7% | 23.1% | 13.2% |
| Market | 43.6% | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| Final | 48.6% | 27.3% | 24.1% |
| Edge | +5.0% | -1.4% | -3.6% |
Why Libertad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Libertad below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.4% per unit staked (our 48.6% × 2.19 − 1).
Libertad vs Emelec match preview
Libertad faces Emelec in the Liga Pro with a probability of winning set at 49%, while Emelec has a 24% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Libertad, which has a 12% likelihood. The expected goals for Libertad is 1.93, compared to Emelec's 0.77, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
Recent form shows Libertad with mixed results, recording a draw, a loss, and three wins in their last six matches. In contrast, Emelec has struggled, losing five of their last six games. Historically, the last nine encounters between the two teams have seen Libertad and Emelec each secure two wins, with five matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Libertad and Emelec expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Libertad and Emelec attack and defence ratings
Libertad
Emelec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Placement Group - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Libertad vs Emelec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 48.6% | 2.06 | +5.0% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 48.6% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Emelec | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
Libertad vs Emelec stats
Libertad and Emelec recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Libertad and Emelec season so far
Libertad record
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec record
- They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Libertad vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-01 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-05 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-27 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Libertad vs Emelec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 28.7%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.24 | 3.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.36 | 3.51 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.02 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .