Palmeiras
vs
LDU de Quito
1 – 0 Full time
| 12′ | Michael Estrada | ||
| 22′ | Fernando Cornejo | ||
| 26′ | A. Giay | ||
| 32′ | Yerlin Quinonez | ||
| 44′ | Gustavo Gómez | ||
| 46′ | Y. QuinonezJ. Carabali | ||
| 51′ | F. CornejoJ. Rodriguez | ||
| 61′ | J. PretellS. Gonzalez Baquero | ||
| 61′ | L. RodriguezA. Alvarado | ||
| 73′ | Gian Franco Allala | ||
| 79′ | Vitor RoqueHeittor Vinicius | ||
| 85′ | M. EstradaDeyverson | ||
| 90′ | Bruno Fuchs | ||
| 90′ | Lucas Evangelista |
Match stats
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 6 |
| 391 | Accurate passes | 239 |
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.3% | 32.4% | 16.4% |
| Market | 73.8% | 19.0% | 7.2% |
| Final | 68.2% | 22.3% | 9.5% |
| Edge | -22.5% | +13.4% | +9.1% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.59.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.83
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 1 – 0 LDU de Quito
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 68.2% | 1.47 | -22.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 68.2% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| LDU de Quito | 9.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.8% |
| No | 67.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.0% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.8% |
| 0-0 | 17.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito stats
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito recent form
| Palmeiras |
DDDWWW |
| LDU de Quito |
WDLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
LDU de Quito record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | Palmeiras | LDU de Quito | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | LDU de Quito | Palmeiras | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.8%, draw 19.0%, away 7.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 5.27 | 13.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 4.75 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 4.80 | 11.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.26 | 5.00 | 12.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 5.28 | 12.69 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 4.80 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .