Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Botafogo
vs
Palmeiras
0 – 0 Full time
| 19′ | Alexander Barboza | ||
| 20′ | Arthur Cabral | ||
| 24′ | Marçal | ||
| 63′ | Lucas EvangelistaVitor Roque | ||
| 63′ | MauricioJ. Arias | ||
| 68′ | VitinhoM. Ponte | ||
| 68′ | L. M. Villalba JaumeJunior Santos | ||
| 73′ | Arthur CabralK. Barria | ||
| 76′ | Álvaro Montoro | ||
| 77′ | Marlon Freitas | ||
| 78′ | A. MontoroC. Medina | ||
| 78′ | Danilo SantosEdenilson | ||
| 80′ | A. GiayKhellven | ||
| 80′ | Felipe AndersonE. Martinez | ||
| 88′ | Andreas PereiraLarson | ||
| 90′ | Alexander Barboza | ||
| 90′ | Alexander Barboza |
Botafogo
25%
Draw
27%
Palmeiras
48%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 33 | Possession % | 67 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 219 | Accurate passes | 525 |
Botafogo vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Botafogo | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.0% | 26.2% | 53.9% |
| Market | 27.3% | 26.8% | 45.9% |
| Final | 25.5% | 26.6% | 47.9% |
| Edge | -7.3% | -0.6% | +7.9% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
50%
No goals
8%
Botafogo and Palmeiras expected goals
Botafogo
0.96
Palmeiras
1.71
Total expected goals: 2.67
Botafogo and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Botafogo
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
1.24 +24%
Palmeiras
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
0.72 -28%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Botafogo vs Palmeiras: result vs prediction
Botafogo 0 – 0 Palmeiras
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 47.9% | 2.09 | +7.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 25.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Palmeiras | 47.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | |
| 0-2 | 10.1% |
Botafogo vs Palmeiras stats
Botafogo and Palmeiras recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo and Palmeiras going into this match
Botafogo record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Botafogo wins
2Draws
4Palmeiras wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Palmeiras | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Botafogo | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-28 | Palmeiras | Botafogo | FIFA Club World Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Palmeiras | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-27 | Palmeiras | Botafogo | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2024-08-22 | Palmeiras | Botafogo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-15 | Botafogo | Palmeiras | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-18 | Botafogo | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-02 | Botafogo | Palmeiras | Serie A | 3-4 |
| 2023-06-25 | Palmeiras | Botafogo | Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.9%, draw 27.5%, away 44.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| 1xBet | 3.50 | 3.64 | 2.08 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 3.40 | 3.54 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.59 | 3.57 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.45 ▲ +0.29
X
3.52 ▲ +0.18
2
2.05 ▼ -0.16
19 snapshots recorded, from .