Flamengo
vs
Botafogo
3 – 0 Full time
| 13′ | Samuel Lino | ||
| 21′ | Alex TellesL. Monzon | ||
| 46′ | A. MontoroDanilo Pereira | ||
| 57′ | Luiz AraujoLucas Paqueta | ||
| 66′ | EdenilsonC. Medina | ||
| 75′ | G. de ArrascaetaJ. Carrascal | ||
| 77′ | VitinhoJunior Santos | ||
| 77′ | Arthur CabralL. M. Villalba Jaume | ||
| 83′ | Marçal | ||
| 86′ | Samuel Lino | ||
| 87′ | PedroEverton | ||
| 89′ | Gabriel Justino | ||
| 89′ | J. Carrascal |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 588 | Accurate passes | 303 |
Flamengo vs Botafogo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Botafogo
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.8% | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Market | 66.5% | 20.2% | 13.3% |
| Final | 67.6% | 19.9% | 12.6% |
| Edge | +4.3% | -1.5% | -2.8% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Flamengo below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flamengo and Botafogo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Flamengo and Botafogo attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Botafogo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Flamengo vs Botafogo: result vs prediction
Flamengo 3 – 0 Botafogo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Botafogo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 67.6% | 1.48 | +4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 67.6% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Botafogo | 12.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 29.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.1% |
Flamengo vs Botafogo stats
Flamengo and Botafogo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Botafogo going into this match
Flamengo record
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Botafogo | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-15 | Botafogo | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2025-05-18 | Flamengo | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Botafogo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.5%, draw 20.2%, away 13.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.94 | 7.41 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.65 | 7.30 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 5.05 | 6.96 |
| SBO | 1.37 | 4.20 | 6.18 |
| Unibet | 1.43 | 4.35 | 7.00 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .