Mirassol
vs
Palmeiras
1 – 1 Full time
| -5′ | Neto Moura | ||
| 50′ | Eduardo | ||
| 69′ | Neto MouraJapa | ||
| 70′ | EduardoG. Cazonatti | ||
| 70′ | Felipe AndersonKhellven | ||
| 70′ | Vitor RoqueLucas Evangelista | ||
| 75′ | Mauricio | ||
| 76′ | Gustavo SilvaCarlos Eduardo | ||
| 79′ | AlessonFernandinho | ||
| 79′ | Bruno SantosAndre Luis | ||
| 81′ | Mirassol | ||
| 85′ | Denilson | ||
| 87′ | MauricioHeittor Vinicius | ||
| 90′ | Arthur Gabriel | ||
| 90′ | Arthur Gabriel | ||
| 90′ | Arthur Gabriel |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 372 | Accurate passes | 374 |
Mirassol vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Mirassol | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.9% | 25.0% | 58.0% |
| Market | 26.0% | 28.4% | 45.6% |
| Final | 23.7% | 27.5% | 48.7% |
| Edge | -9.1% | -3.3% | +12.4% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mirassol and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Mirassol and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Mirassol
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras: result vs prediction
Mirassol 1 – 1 Palmeiras
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mirassol vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 48.7% | 2.05 | +12.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 23.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Palmeiras | 48.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 42.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-2 | 11.1% |
Mirassol vs Palmeiras stats
Mirassol and Palmeiras recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mirassol and Palmeiras going into this match
Mirassol record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Palmeiras | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Palmeiras | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Mirassol | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-16 | Palmeiras | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Mirassol | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 2-3 |
| 2024-02-24 | Palmeiras | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-02 | Mirassol | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 0-2 |
| 2021-04-25 | Palmeiras | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 | 1-2 |
| 2020-02-16 | Palmeiras | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.0%, draw 28.4%, away 45.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.02 |
| 1xBet | 3.74 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| 888Sport | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.35 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.64 | 3.26 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.75 | 3.32 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.18 | 2.99 | 2.00 |
| Unibet | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .