Vasco DA Gama
vs
Cruzeiro
3 – 1 Full time
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 31.9% | 35.6% |
| Market | 40.4% | 28.6% | 31.0% |
| Final | 38.4% | 29.4% | 32.1% |
| Edge | -7.9% | +3.3% | +4.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro: result vs prediction
Vasco DA Gama 3 – 1 Cruzeiro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 38.4% | 2.60 | -7.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 38.4% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Cruzeiro | 32.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.6% |
| No | 54.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 13.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 67.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 12.6% | |
| 0-1 | 11.3% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro stats
Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
WLWLDD |
| Cruzeiro |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro going into this match
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Cruzeiro | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Vasco DA Gama | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | Cruzeiro | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 28.6%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.34 | 3.25 | 2.98 |
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.29 | 3.21 |
| 888Sport | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.26 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.02 | 2.89 |
| Unibet | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .