Copa Do Brasil
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Atletico-MG
vs
Cruzeiro
2 – 1 Full time
| 17′ | Ruan TressoldiVitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira | ||
| 25′ | Otávio Costa | ||
| 30′ | Kaio Jorge | ||
| 35′ | Kaio Jorge | ||
| 36′ | Jonathan JesusJoão Marcelo | ||
| 42′ | Lucas Villalba | ||
| 45′ | Mateo CassierraReinier Jesus Carvalho | ||
| 58′ | Wesley Gassova Ribeiro TeixeiraKaique Kenji | ||
| 58′ | Natanael Moreira Milouski | ||
| 65′ | Kaio JorgeNéiser Villarreal | ||
| 65′ | Matheus PereiraGabriel Rojas | ||
| 65′ | GersonMatheus Henrique | ||
| 65′ | Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteVictor Hugo Gomes Silva | ||
| 65′ | Alan FrancoAlan Minda | ||
| 71′ | Lucas Romer | ||
| 72′ | Natanael Moreira MilouskiGustavo Scarpa | ||
| 77′ | Victor Hugo Gomes Silva | ||
| 88′ | Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos | ||
| 90′ | Keny arroyo | ||
| 90′ | Fabrício Bruno |
Atletico-MG
40%
Draw
31%
Cruzeiro
29%
Match stats
| 28 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 436 | Accurate passes | 241 |
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Market | 37.5% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Final | 40.4% | 30.8% | 28.8% |
| Edge | +11.6% | -1.9% | -9.7% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
41%
No goals
11%
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro expected goals
Atletico-MG
1.44
Cruzeiro
0.87
Total expected goals: 2.31
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Cruzeiro
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: result vs prediction
Atletico-MG 2 – 1 Cruzeiro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 40.4% | 2.48 | +11.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 40.4% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| Cruzeiro | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 50.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro stats
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro recent form
| Atletico-MG |
WDDDWW |
| Cruzeiro |
LDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro going into this match
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Atletico-MG wins
4Draws
3Cruzeiro wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Mineiro - 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-01-18 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 31.2%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.52 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 2.88 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 2.88 | 3.23 |
| SBO | 2.35 | 2.99 | 2.85 |
| Superbet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.50 ▼ -0.05
X
3.00 —
2
3.00 ▲ +0.10
9 snapshots recorded, from .