Cruzeiro
vs
Atletico-MG
1 – 1 Full time
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Cruzeiro | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.9% | 33.3% | 30.9% |
| Market | 48.1% | 29.0% | 22.9% |
| Final | 45.1% | 30.0% | 24.9% |
| Edge | -12.3% | +4.3% | +8.0% |
Why Cruzeiro
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cruzeiro and Atletico-MG expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Cruzeiro and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG: result vs prediction
Cruzeiro 1 – 1 Atletico-MG
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 45.1% | 2.22 | -12.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 45.1% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Atletico-MG | 24.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 64.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG stats
Cruzeiro and Atletico-MG recent form
| Cruzeiro |
WLWDWW |
| Atletico-MG |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cruzeiro and Atletico-MG going into this match
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Mineiro - 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-01-18 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-11 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.1%, draw 29.0%, away 22.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.24 | 4.27 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.18 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.26 | 4.39 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.09 | 3.67 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Unibet | 1.93 | 3.25 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .