Palmeiras
vs
Santos
3 – 0 Full time
Palmeiras vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Santos
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 25.8% | 26.6% |
| Market | 58.5% | 25.2% | 16.3% |
| Final | 55.8% | 25.3% | 18.8% |
| Edge | -11.0% | +0.6% | +10.4% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.25.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and Santos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Palmeiras and Santos attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Santos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs Santos: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 3 – 0 Santos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 55.8% | 1.79 | -11.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 55.8% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Santos | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Palmeiras vs Santos stats
Palmeiras and Santos recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Santos going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Santos record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Palmeiras | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Palmeiras | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Santos | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Palmeiras | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-23 | Santos | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Palmeiras | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-31 | Santos | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-28 | Palmeiras | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Palmeiras | Santos | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-21 | Santos | Palmeiras | Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.5%, draw 25.2%, away 16.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.74 | 5.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.50 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.72 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.73 | 5.80 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.74 | 5.80 |
| Superbet | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| Unibet | 1.52 | 3.95 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .