Palmeiras
vs
Vasco DA Gama
4 – 1 Full time
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.9% | 24.7% | 15.5% |
| Market | 58.1% | 24.8% | 17.1% |
| Final | 58.5% | 24.7% | 16.7% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.1% | -1.6% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.82.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 4 – 1 Vasco DA Gama
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 58.5% | 1.71 | +1.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 58.5% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 11.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Palmeiras |
WLDDLW |
| Vasco DA Gama |
WLDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Vasco DA Gama | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Palmeiras | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Vasco DA Gama | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 24.7%, away 17.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.60 | 3.85 | 5.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| 888Sport | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.01 | 5.60 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.94 |
| Superbet | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.55 |
| Unibet | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.75 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .