Chapecoense-sc
vs
Sao Paulo
1 – 0 Full time
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo
| Probability | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.2% | 28.0% | 39.8% |
| Market | 25.5% | 28.6% | 46.0% |
| Final | 27.1% | 28.4% | 44.4% |
| Edge | +6.7% | -0.6% | -6.1% |
Why Sao Paulo
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo attack and defence ratings
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo: result vs prediction
Chapecoense-sc 1 – 0 Sao Paulo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 44.4% | 2.25 | -6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 27.1% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Sao Paulo | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo stats
Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo recent form
| Chapecoense-sc |
DLLDDL |
| Sao Paulo |
WDDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo going into this match
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 2 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Sao Paulo | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.3%, draw 28.7%, away 46.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 3.76 | 3.36 | 2.09 |
| 888Sport | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 3.40 | 2.09 |
| Marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.26 | 2.03 |
| Pinnacle | 3.81 | 3.39 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 3.39 | 3.14 | 2.02 |
| Superbet | 3.65 | 3.35 | 2.07 |
| Unibet | 3.55 | 3.30 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .