Vitoria
vs
Bahia
0 – 2 Full time
Vitoria vs Bahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria vs Bahia
| Probability | Vitoria | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Market | 36.2% | 29.9% | 33.9% |
| Final | 37.6% | 29.8% | 32.6% |
| Edge | +5.6% | -0.3% | -5.3% |
Why Vitoria
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vitoria below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitoria and Bahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Vitoria and Bahia attack and defence ratings
Vitoria
Bahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vitoria vs Bahia: result vs prediction
Vitoria 0 – 2 Bahia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitoria vs Bahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 37.6% | 2.66 | +5.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 37.6% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Bahia | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Vitoria vs Bahia stats
Vitoria and Bahia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitoria and Bahia going into this match
Vitoria record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Bahia record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Bahia | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Vitoria | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Bahia | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitoria vs Bahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 29.9%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.84 |
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.17 | 2.86 |
| 888Sport | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.58 | 3.08 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.18 | 2.88 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 3.05 | 2.58 |
| Superbet | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .