Vasco DA Gama
vs
Vitoria
1 – 0 Full time
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.0% | 28.8% | 26.2% |
| Market | 55.6% | 26.5% | 17.9% |
| Final | 53.0% | 27.1% | 20.0% |
| Edge | -10.7% | +2.3% | +8.3% |
Why Vasco DA Gama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.06.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria: result vs prediction
Vasco DA Gama 1 – 0 Vitoria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 53.0% | 1.89 | -10.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 53.0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Vitoria | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria stats
Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
LWLDDW |
| Vitoria |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria going into this match
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Vitoria record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Vitoria | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Vasco DA Gama | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 4-3 |
| 2025-05-10 | Vitoria | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Vitoria | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Vasco DA Gama | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2021-11-11 | Vasco DA Gama | Vitoria | Serie B | 0-3 |
| 2021-08-07 | Vitoria | Vasco DA Gama | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2018-09-09 | Vitoria | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2018-05-13 | Vasco DA Gama | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2017-11-05 | Vasco DA Gama | Vitoria | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.6%, draw 26.5%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.69 | 3.60 | 5.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.52 | 5.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.46 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.47 | 5.68 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.39 | 4.70 |
| Superbet | 1.71 | 3.65 | 5.25 |
| Unibet | 1.70 | 3.55 | 4.75 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .