Copa Do Brasil · 2026-09-03T23:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Quarter-finals

Gremio vs Internacional

3 – 1 Full time

14′			Carlos Vinícius
22′			Carlos Vinícius
29′			Thiago Maia
33′			Cristian Pavón
45′			Paulo César Pezzolano Suárez
45′			Walter Kannemann
58′			Bruno HenriqueVitinho
59′			Matheus BahiaJohan Carbonero
62′			Walter KannemannGustavo Martins
62′			Cristian PavónTetê
68′			Filip Krovinović
71′			Thiago MaiaPaulo Lucas Santos de Paula
71′			Antonio SanabriaAlerrandro
74′			Gustavo Martins
74′			Guillermo Maripán
79′			Vitinho
83′			Francis AmuzuJuan Nardoni
83′			Filip KrovinovićJosé Enamorado
84′			Alan Patrick
89′			Mathias VillasantiDanilo Barbosa da Silva
90′			Marlon

Referee: B. Arleu

Gremio

40%

Draw

32%

Internacional

28%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

9	Shots	23
5	Shots on target	7
40	Possession %	60
4	Corners	13
9	Fouls	18
3	Offsides	1
6	Saves	2
232	Accurate passes	373

Gremio vs Internacional overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Internacional

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Gremio	Draw	Internacional
Model	43.3%	29.9%	26.9%
Market	38.5%	32.8%	28.8%
Final	39.7%	32.1%	28.3%
Edge	+4.8%	-2.9%	-1.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Gremio

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 1.02.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Gremio below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

70%

3+ goals

42%

No goals

11%

Gremio and Internacional expected goals

Gremio

1.36

Internacional

1.02

Total expected goals: 2.38

Gremio and Internacional attack and defence ratings

Gremio

Attack

1.02 +2%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Internacional

Attack

0.92 -8%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gremio vs Internacional: result vs prediction

Gremio 3 – 1 Internacional

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

Copa Do Brasil

Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG — match page · 2026-08-26
Palmeiras vs Santos — team news & stats · 2026-08-27
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria · 2026-08-27
Internacional v Gremio — match page · 2026-08-27
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro — team news & stats · 2026-09-02
Santos vs Palmeiras · 2026-09-03
Vitoria v Vasco DA Gama — match page · 2026-09-03

Before and after this match

Gremio, previous: Gremio – Chapecoense-sc, 2026-08-30
Gremio, next: Vitoria v Gremio analysis
Internacional, previous: Bahia vs Internacional: odds and pick
Internacional, next: Internacional – Santos, 2026-09-06

Gremio vs Internacional markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Gremio	39.7%	2.52	+4.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	57.5%	1.74	—	—
Both teams to score	No	51.2%	1.95	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.7%	1.39	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	56.7%	1.76	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Gremio	39.7%
	Draw	32.1%
	Internacional	28.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42.5%
	Under 2.5	57.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	48.8%
	No	51.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.7%
	12 (either side)	67.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	60.3%
Handicap -1	Gremio win	21.0%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.3%
	Loss	56.7%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.1%
	1-0	11.3%
	0-0	10.6%

Gremio vs Internacional stats

Gremio and Internacional recent form

newest first

Gremio	WDLLWW
Internacional	LDDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gremio and Internacional going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gremio record

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Internacional record

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Gremio vs Internacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Gremio wins 6Draws 2Internacional wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-27	Internacional	Gremio	Copa Do Brasil	0-0
2026-04-11	Internacional	Gremio	Brazil Serie A	0-0
2026-03-08	Internacional	Gremio	Gaúcho - 1	1-1
2026-03-01	Gremio	Internacional	Gaúcho - 1	3-0
2026-01-25	Internacional	Gremio	Gaúcho - 1	4-2
2025-09-21	Internacional	Gremio	Brazil Serie A	2-3
2025-04-20	Gremio	Internacional	Brazil Serie A	1-1
2025-03-16	Internacional	Gremio	Gaúcho - 1	1-1
2025-03-08	Gremio	Internacional	Gaúcho - 1	0-2
2025-02-09	Gremio	Internacional	Gaúcho - 1	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gremio vs Internacional odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 32.8%, away 28.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.45	2.86	3.20
1xBet	2.55	2.80	3.30
Bet365	2.40	3.00	3.25
BetVictor	2.38	2.90	3.00
Betano	2.55	3.00	3.35
Betfair	2.40	2.75	3.30
Dafabet	2.55	2.90	3.20
Marathonbet	2.43	2.81	3.28
Pinnacle	2.51	2.85	3.46
SBO	2.27	2.82	2.82
Superbet	2.35	3.10	3.30
Unibet	2.43	2.80	3.15
William Hill	2.45	2.80	3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.43 ▼ -0.82

X 2.85 ▼ -0.20

2 3.25 ▲ +0.96

23 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-22T08:43:07Z.