Vitoria
vs
Gremio
1 – 0 Full time
| 36′ | Pedro Gabriel | ||
| 38′ | Cristian Pavón | ||
| 45′ | Pedro GabrielCaio Paulista | ||
| 48′ | Erick | ||
| 48′ | Caio Paulista | ||
| 55′ | Caíque Gonçalves | ||
| 59′ | Erick Noriega | ||
| 63′ | Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira | ||
| 69′ | Erick NoriegaDanilo Barbosa da Silva | ||
| 69′ | Cristian PavónJuan Nardoni | ||
| 69′ | Mathias VillasantiJosé Enamorado | ||
| 72′ | ErickMarinho | ||
| 78′ | Carlos ViníciusMartin Braithwaite | ||
| 79′ | Gustavo Martins | ||
| 81′ | Caíque GonçalvesEdenilson | ||
| 82′ | Diego TarziaFabri | ||
| 82′ | MatheuzinhoTomás Pochettino | ||
| 90′ | Carlos Renê de Sousa FerreiraRenato Kayzer |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 5 |
| 323 | Accurate passes | 401 |
Vitoria vs Gremio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria vs Gremio
| Probability | Vitoria | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.4% | 31.6% | 43.0% |
| Market | 45.1% | 28.7% | 26.3% |
| Final | 40.1% | 29.4% | 30.5% |
| Edge | -19.7% | +3.0% | +16.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitoria and Gremio expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Vitoria and Gremio attack and defence ratings
Vitoria
Gremio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vitoria vs Gremio: result vs prediction
Vitoria 1 – 0 Gremio
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitoria vs Gremio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 40.1% | 2.49 | -19.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 40.1% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Gremio | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win | 9.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 74.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Vitoria vs Gremio stats
Vitoria and Gremio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitoria and Gremio going into this match
Vitoria record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Gremio | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Gremio | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Vitoria | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-04 | Vitoria | Gremio | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Gremio | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2021-08-03 | Gremio | Vitoria | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-28 | Vitoria | Gremio | Copa Do Brasil | 0-3 |
| 2018-11-25 | Vitoria | Gremio | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2018-08-12 | Gremio | Vitoria | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2017-11-12 | Gremio | Vitoria | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitoria vs Gremio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.1%, draw 28.7%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.35 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.38 | 3.73 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.16 | 3.37 |
| Superbet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Unibet | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .