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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 27

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama

1 – 2 Full time

7′Pedro Gabriel
26′Tchê Tchê
32′Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos
39′Mathias Villasanti
45′Cuiabano
53′Robert Renan
55′AdsonBruno Duarte Da Silva
55′Paulo HenriqueJose Luis Rodriguez
58′Diego Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
61′Jovane CabralJuan Nardoni
71′TetêJosé Enamorado
73′Tchê TchêAlan Lescano
73′Carlos CuestaJair
76′Thiago Mendes
78′CuiabanoLucas Piton
80′Facundo Colidio
86′Walter KannemannMatheus Nascimento

Arena do Grêmio, Porto AlegreReferee: Raphael Claus

Gremio 35%
Draw 30%
Vasco DA Gama 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 5
51 Possession % 49
3 Corners 5
10 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 3
396 Accurate passes 387

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGremioDrawVasco DA Gama
Model36.7%33.5%29.8%
Market34.3%29.5%36.3%
Final34.9%30.5%34.7%
Edge+2.4%+4.0%-6.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Gremio

  • The market prices Gremio below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gremio ↓ / Vasco DA Gama → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 11% 1 13% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

Gremio 1.06
Vasco DA Gama 0.93

Total expected goals: 2.00

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings

Gremio

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Vasco DA Gama

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: result vs prediction

Gremio 1 – 2 Vasco DA Gama

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gremio 34.9% 2.87 +2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.8% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score No 59.0% 1.70 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.5% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.3% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gremio34.9%
Draw30.5%
Vasco DA Gama34.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.2%
Under 2.567.8%
Both teams to scoreYes41.0%
No59.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.3%
12 (either side)69.5%
X2 (draw or away)65.1%
Handicap -1Gremio win15.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss63.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-014.9%
1-114.8%
1-013.1%

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama stats

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama recent form

newest first
Gremio LWWDLL
Vasco DA Gama DLWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gremio record

  • They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vasco DA Gama record

  • They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Gremio wins 2Draws 3Vasco DA Gama wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22Vasco DA GamaGremioBrazil Serie A2-1
2025-11-20GremioVasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A2-0
2025-07-19Vasco DA GamaGremioBrazil Serie A1-1
2024-07-28GremioVasco DA GamaSerie A1-0
2024-04-14Vasco DA GamaGremioSerie A2-1
2023-12-03GremioVasco DA GamaSerie A1-0
2023-08-06Vasco DA GamaGremioSerie A1-0
2022-09-11GremioVasco DA GamaSerie B2-1
2022-06-02Vasco DA GamaGremioSerie B0-0
2020-12-06GremioVasco DA GamaSerie A4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 29.5%, away 36.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.73 3.29 2.70
Bet365 2.75 3.20 2.62
BetVictor 2.70 3.25 2.60
Betano 2.75 3.20 2.67
Betfair 2.80 3.20 2.50
Marathonbet 2.79 3.20 2.49
Pinnacle 2.80 3.31 2.66
SBO 2.61 3.08 2.48
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 ▲ +0.70
X 3.20 ▼ -0.05
2 2.60 ▼ -0.94

16 snapshots recorded, from .