Botafogo
vs
Gremio
3 – 2 Full time
| 30′ | Danilo Santos | ||
| 36′ | J. Cabral | ||
| 46′ | L. MonzonG. Justino | ||
| 46′ | EdenilsonDanilo Pereira | ||
| 52′ | A. Montoro | ||
| 60′ | J. CabralJ. Enamorado | ||
| 66′ | F. KrovinovicM. Braithwaite | ||
| 73′ | Junior SantosMarcal | ||
| 78′ | Mathias Villasanti | ||
| 78′ | C. PavonTete | ||
| 78′ | E. NoriegaMatheus Nascimento | ||
| 79′ | Danilo Santos | ||
| 85′ | A. MontoroAllan | ||
| 86′ | Arthur CabralTiquinho Soares | ||
| 88′ | Gustavo Martins | ||
| 90′ | Danilo Santos |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 286 | Accurate passes | 571 |
Botafogo vs Gremio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo vs Gremio
| Probability | Botafogo | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 31.5% | 29.9% |
| Market | 55.2% | 24.7% | 20.2% |
| Final | 51.0% | 26.4% | 22.6% |
| Edge | -16.6% | +6.8% | +9.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botafogo and Gremio expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Botafogo and Gremio attack and defence ratings
Botafogo
Gremio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Botafogo vs Gremio: result vs prediction
Botafogo 3 – 2 Gremio
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo vs Gremio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 51.0% | 1.96 | -16.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 51.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Gremio | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-0 | 11.7% |
Botafogo vs Gremio stats
Botafogo and Gremio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo and Gremio going into this match
Botafogo record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Gremio | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 5-3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Botafogo | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-24 | Gremio | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Botafogo | Gremio | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-16 | Gremio | Botafogo | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-09 | Botafogo | Gremio | Serie A | 3-4 |
| 2023-07-09 | Gremio | Botafogo | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2021-02-08 | Botafogo | Gremio | Serie A | 2-5 |
| 2020-10-14 | Gremio | Botafogo | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2019-10-27 | Gremio | Botafogo | Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo vs Gremio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 24.7%, away 20.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.84 | 4.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.74 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.84 | 4.98 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.40 | 4.09 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .