Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Gremio
vs
Palmeiras
0 – 0 Full time
| 33′ | Agustin Giay | ||
| 40′ | Erick Noriega | ||
| 45′ | Erick NoriegaDanilo Barbosa da Silva | ||
| 64′ | João Pedro | ||
| 67′ | Carlos Vinícius | ||
| 68′ | Cristian PavónJosé Enamorado | ||
| 69′ | Francis AmuzuJovane Cabral | ||
| 69′ | Gustavo Martins | ||
| 72′ | Vitor RoqueRamon Sosa | ||
| 72′ | Jhon AriasFelipe Anderson | ||
| 73′ | Alexander Barboza | ||
| 74′ | Carlos ViníciusMartin Braithwaite | ||
| 77′ | Joaquín Piquerez | ||
| 79′ | Lucas Evangelista | ||
| 79′ | Andreas PereiraMaurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 79′ | Joaquín PiquerezArthur Gabriel | ||
| 81′ | João PedroMarcos Rocha | ||
| 88′ | Ramon Sosa | ||
| 88′ | Agustin GiayKhellven Douglas Silva Oliveira | ||
| 89′ | Pedro Gabriel |
Gremio
24%
Draw
27%
Palmeiras
49%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 28 | Possession % | 72 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 10 | Saves | 4 |
| 172 | Accurate passes | 536 |
Gremio vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Gremio | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.6% | 29.3% | 47.1% |
| Market | 23.7% | 26.4% | 49.9% |
| Final | 23.7% | 27.1% | 49.2% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +2.9% | -2.8% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
42%
No goals
11%
Gremio and Palmeiras expected goals
Gremio
0.95
Palmeiras
1.43
Total expected goals: 2.38
Gremio and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Gremio
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Palmeiras
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gremio vs Palmeiras: result vs prediction
Gremio 0 – 0 Palmeiras
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gremio vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 49.2% | 2.03 | -2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 23.7% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Palmeiras | 49.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Gremio vs Palmeiras stats
Gremio and Palmeiras recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gremio and Palmeiras going into this match
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Gremio wins
1Draws
7Palmeiras wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Palmeiras | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Gremio | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2025-07-27 | Palmeiras | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Palmeiras | Gremio | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-04 | Gremio | Palmeiras | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-22 | Gremio | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-11 | Palmeiras | Gremio | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2021-10-31 | Gremio | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2021-07-07 | Palmeiras | Gremio | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2021-03-07 | Palmeiras | Gremio | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gremio vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 26.4%, away 49.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 3.65 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.92 | 3.54 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | 4.06 | 3.66 | 1.94 |
| SBO | 3.74 | 3.29 | 1.86 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.00 ▲ +0.74
X
3.60 ▲ +0.31
2
1.90 ▼ -0.27
19 snapshots recorded, from .