Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Vitoria
vs
Cruzeiro
1 – 3 Full time
| 39′ | Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira | ||
| 41′ | Jonathan Jesus | ||
| 45′ | FagnerWilliam | ||
| 45′ | Wesley Gassova Ribeiro TeixeiraFelipe Morais | ||
| 45′ | MatheusinhoEmanuel Brítez | ||
| 45′ | Caíque GonçalvesZé Vitor | ||
| 46′ | Keny arroyo | ||
| 56′ | Gabriel RojasLucas Villalba | ||
| 56′ | Zé LucasMatheus Henrique | ||
| 66′ | Lucas Villalba | ||
| 69′ | ErickLucas Silva | ||
| 78′ | Gerson | ||
| 81′ | GersonFabrício Bruno | ||
| 83′ | MatheuzinhoRenato Kayzer | ||
| 83′ | Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreirabruno alex | ||
| 87′ | Felipe Morais | ||
| 90′ | Matheus Pereira |
Vitoria
32%
Draw
28%
Cruzeiro
40%
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 6 |
| 317 | Accurate passes | 458 |
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
| Probability | Vitoria | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 30.3% | 37.7% |
| Market | 32.0% | 27.8% | 40.2% |
| Final | 32.0% | 28.4% | 39.6% |
| Edge | -0.0% | +2.5% | -2.4% |
Why Cruzeiro
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Vitoria and Cruzeiro expected goals
Vitoria
1.14
Cruzeiro
1.25
Total expected goals: 2.39
Vitoria and Cruzeiro attack and defence ratings
Vitoria
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Cruzeiro
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: result vs prediction
Vitoria 1 – 3 Cruzeiro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 39.6% | 2.53 | -2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 32.0% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Cruzeiro | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win | 17.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-1 | 10.2% |
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro stats
Vitoria and Cruzeiro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitoria and Cruzeiro going into this match
Vitoria record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Vitoria wins
3Draws
6Cruzeiro wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Cruzeiro | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Cruzeiro | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Vitoria | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-19 | Vitoria | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-28 | Cruzeiro | Vitoria | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2021-11-14 | Vitoria | Cruzeiro | Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2021-08-11 | Cruzeiro | Vitoria | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2020-12-12 | Vitoria | Cruzeiro | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2020-09-12 | Cruzeiro | Vitoria | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2018-11-21 | Cruzeiro | Vitoria | Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 27.8%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.02 | 3.42 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.93 | 3.32 | 2.31 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.50 | 2.39 |
| SBO | 2.76 | 3.08 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.95 ▲ +0.21
X
3.40 ▲ +0.20
2
2.35 ▼ -0.18
20 snapshots recorded, from .