Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Atletico-MG
vs
Chapecoense-sc
1 – 1 Full time
| 44′ | Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira | ||
| 48′ | Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza | ||
| 58′ | Kaua PasciniMateo Cassierra | ||
| 58′ | Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da CostaRenan Lodi | ||
| 58′ | Alan MindaEduardo Pereira Rodrigues | ||
| 69′ | Mateo Cassierra | ||
| 71′ | Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraYannick Bolasie | ||
| 71′ | Luis Eduardo Marques dos SantosBruno Matias | ||
| 81′ | Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira | ||
| 81′ | Maycon de Andrade BarberanKevin Castaño | ||
| 82′ | Bruno PachecoFernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior | ||
| 82′ | Giovanni AugustoMiguel Carvalho Vianna | ||
| 88′ | Yago FelipeDavid Antunes da Silva | ||
| 90′ | Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior |
Atletico-MG
70%
Draw
19%
Chapecoense-sc
11%
Match stats
| 26 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 66 | Possession % | 34 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 8 |
| 581 | Accurate passes | 282 |
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.6% | 19.1% | 12.3% |
| Market | 70.8% | 19.2% | 10.0% |
| Final | 70.3% | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -0.1% | +2.2% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
4%
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
Atletico-MG
2.38
Chapecoense-sc
0.94
Total expected goals: 3.32
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Chapecoense-sc
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.30 +30%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc: result vs prediction
Atletico-MG 1 – 1 Chapecoense-sc
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 70.3% | 1.42 | -2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 46.8% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 70.3% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 10.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 46.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc stats
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc recent form
| Atletico-MG |
LWWLWW |
| Chapecoense-sc |
LWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc going into this match
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Atletico-MG wins
5Draws
3Chapecoense-sc wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Chapecoense-sc | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 0-4 |
| 2021-10-06 | Chapecoense-sc | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2021-06-21 | Atletico-MG | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-30 | Atletico-MG | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2019-07-14 | Chapecoense-sc | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2018-10-06 | Chapecoense-sc | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2018-06-02 | Atletico-MG | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2018-05-16 | Chapecoense-sc | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2018-05-02 | Atletico-MG | Chapecoense-sc | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2017-10-18 | Atletico-MG | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 20.4%, away 12.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 4.66 | 7.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.90 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 4.65 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.02 | 9.61 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.03 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.36 ▼ -0.04
X
5.02 ▲ +0.63
2
9.61 ▲ +1.81
18 snapshots recorded, from .