Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Corinthians
vs
Fluminense
1 – 3 Full time
| 20′ | Memphis Depay | ||
| 24′ | Hulk | ||
| 35′ | Matheuzinho | ||
| 44′ | Samuel Xavier Brito | ||
| 45′ | Matheus Martinelli Lima | ||
| 45′ | Iago MachadoGui Negão | ||
| 56′ | Gustavo Henrique | ||
| 59′ | Samuel Xavier BritoJulio César Lima Fidelis | ||
| 59′ | Luciano AcostaPaulo Henrique Chagas de Lima | ||
| 61′ | André | ||
| 62′ | Agustín Canobbio | ||
| 64′ | Julio César Lima Fidelis | ||
| 71′ | Gustavo Nonato Santana | ||
| 76′ | Hulk | ||
| 76′ | Agustín CanobbioRiquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida | ||
| 76′ | Gustavo Nonato SantanaHércules Pereira do Nascimento | ||
| 80′ | AndréJesse Lingard | ||
| 81′ | Memphis DepayPedro Raul | ||
| 87′ | HulkRodrigo Castillo | ||
| 88′ | Breno BidonMatheus Pereira | ||
| 90′ | Kevin Serna |
Corinthians
42%
Draw
31%
Fluminense
27%
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 452 | Accurate passes | 349 |
Corinthians vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Corinthians vs Fluminense
| Probability | Corinthians | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.6% | 32.5% | 33.9% |
| Market | 44.7% | 30.0% | 25.4% |
| Final | 41.9% | 30.6% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -11.1% | +2.5% | +8.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
64%
3+ goals
35%
No goals
13%
Corinthians and Fluminense expected goals
Corinthians
1.05
Fluminense
1.06
Total expected goals: 2.12
Corinthians and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Corinthians
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
0.92 -8%
Fluminense
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Corinthians vs Fluminense: result vs prediction
Corinthians 1 – 3 Fluminense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Corinthians vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 41.9% | 2.39 | -11.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 41.9% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Fluminense | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 66.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Corinthians vs Fluminense stats
Corinthians and Fluminense recent form
| Corinthians |
LLDLLL |
| Fluminense |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Corinthians and Fluminense going into this match
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Corinthians wins
3Draws
3Fluminense wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Fluminense | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Fluminense | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-16 | Corinthians | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-18 | Fluminense | Corinthians | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Corinthians | Fluminense | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-20 | Fluminense | Corinthians | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2023-05-28 | Corinthians | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-27 | Corinthians | Fluminense | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-15 | Corinthians | Fluminense | Copa Do Brasil | 3-0 |
| 2022-08-24 | Fluminense | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Corinthians vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 30.0%, away 25.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.22 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.13 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 3.12 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.22 | 3.90 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.98 | 3.43 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.10 ▼ -0.21
X
3.13 ▲ +0.02
2
3.70 ▲ +0.54
20 snapshots recorded, from .