Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Sao Paulo
vs
Internacional
1 – 0 Full time
| 15′ | Jonathan Calleri | ||
| 19′ | Jonathan Calleri | ||
| 20′ | Matheus Bahia | ||
| 34′ | Bruno Henrique | ||
| 39′ | Domingos DuarteJose Monteiro | ||
| 45′ | Bruno HenriqueThiago Maia | ||
| 45′ | Matheus BahiaAllex Rodrigues Pereira da Silva | ||
| 64′ | LucianoDanielzinho | ||
| 70′ | VitinhoBrian Aguirre | ||
| 73′ | Jonathan CalleriAldemir Ferreira | ||
| 73′ | Pedro LimaLucas Ramon | ||
| 73′ | Artur Victor GuimarãesAndre Silva | ||
| 79′ | Paulo Lucas Santos de PaulaAntonio Sanabria | ||
| 88′ | Johan CarboneroNiclas Eliasson | ||
| 90′ | Gabriel Mercado |
Sao Paulo
50%
Draw
28%
Internacional
22%
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 5 |
| 1 | Saves | 0 |
| 320 | Accurate passes | 424 |
Sao Paulo vs Internacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Internacional
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 28.8% | 19.6% |
| Market | 49.3% | 27.9% | 22.8% |
| Final | 49.9% | 28.1% | 22.0% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +0.9% | -3.2% |
Why Sao Paulo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sao Paulo below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
41%
No goals
11%
Sao Paulo and Internacional expected goals
Sao Paulo
1.49
Internacional
0.82
Total expected goals: 2.31
Sao Paulo and Internacional attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Internacional
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sao Paulo vs Internacional: result vs prediction
Sao Paulo 1 – 0 Internacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Internacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 49.9% | 2.00 | +2.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 49.9% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Internacional | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
Sao Paulo vs Internacional stats
Sao Paulo and Internacional recent form
| Sao Paulo |
DLLWWL |
| Internacional |
WLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Internacional going into this match
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Sao Paulo wins
3Draws
3Internacional wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Internacional | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-03 | Sao Paulo | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Internacional | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-22 | Sao Paulo | Internacional | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2024-06-13 | Internacional | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-14 | Internacional | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-07 | Sao Paulo | Internacional | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-09 | Sao Paulo | Internacional | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2022-07-20 | Internacional | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2021-10-31 | Sao Paulo | Internacional | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Internacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 27.7%, away 23.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.46 | 4.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.35 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.45 | 4.21 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.06 | 3.68 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.91 ▼ -0.05
X
3.38 ▲ +0.04
2
4.14 ▲ +0.36
18 snapshots recorded, from .