Sao Paulo
vs
Boca Juniors
1 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | DanielzinhoDjhordney Ferreira | ||
| 49′ | Djhordney Ferreira | ||
| 60′ | Leandro Lozano | ||
| 62′ | Alan VelascoSebastián Villa | ||
| 64′ | Jose MonteiroAldemir Ferreira | ||
| 64′ | Lucas RamonRyan Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Silva | ||
| 64′ | Gustavo SantanaVictor Sá | ||
| 71′ | Dorival Silvestre Júnior | ||
| 77′ | Milton DelgadoTomás Belmonte | ||
| 77′ | Leonel Benjamín FloresÁngel Romero | ||
| 85′ | Miguel MerentielEnner Valencia | ||
| 88′ | Iago Amaral BorduchiAndre Silva | ||
| 89′ | Domingos Duarte | ||
| 90′ | Ángel Romero | ||
| 90′ | Artur Victor Guimarães |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 474 | Accurate passes | 238 |
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.5% | 32.8% | 38.8% |
| Market | 41.0% | 30.7% | 28.4% |
| Final | 37.8% | 31.2% | 31.0% |
| Edge | -12.5% | +2.1% | +10.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sao Paulo and Boca Juniors expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
Sao Paulo and Boca Juniors attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Boca Juniors
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors: result vs prediction
Sao Paulo 1 – 1 Boca Juniors
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 37.8% | 2.64 | -12.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.6% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 37.8% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Boca Juniors | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.4% |
| No | 57.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 10.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 71.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.1% | |
| 0-1 | 13.1% |
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors stats
Sao Paulo and Boca Juniors recent form
| Sao Paulo |
LLWWLW |
| Boca Juniors |
WWDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Boca Juniors going into this match
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Boca Juniors | Sao Paulo | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 30.4%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.24 | 3.50 |
| 888Sport | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.08 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.07 | 3.47 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 2.88 | 3.09 |
| Unibet | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .