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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 10

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors

0 – 2 Full time

31′M. Insaurralde
34′F. Herrera
35′A. CuelloJ. Rattalino
41′L. Lozano
46′F. HerreraM. Pellegrino
47′L. Di Lollo
55′R. AuzmendiD. Herazo
55′F. FariasJ. Alvarez
57′L. Lozano
67′E. HerreraM. Reali
68′N. TripichioF. Gulli
70′M. Reali
72′Miguel Merentiel
73′S. AscacibarCarlos Palacios
73′A. VelascoAngel Romero
80′F. Gulli
83′L. FloresT. Belmonte
83′Miguel MerentielS. Villa

Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos AiresReferee: N. Arasa

San Lorenzo 23%
Draw 32%
Boca Juniors 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

4 Shots 16
1 Shots on target 7
24 Possession % 76
2 Corners 8
15 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 3
5 Saves 1
136 Accurate passes 576

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors overview

Garuda Lions analysis: San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySan LorenzoDrawBoca Juniors
Model23.0%36.7%40.3%
Market23.0%30.9%46.2%
Final23.0%32.3%44.7%
Edge-0.0%+5.8%-5.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Boca Juniors

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

San Lorenzo ↓ / Boca Juniors → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 21% 18% 1 12% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 79%
2+ goals 50%
3+ goals 23%
No goals 21%

San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors expected goals

San Lorenzo 0.67
Boca Juniors 0.97

Total expected goals: 1.64

San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors attack and defence ratings

San Lorenzo

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Boca Juniors

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors: result vs prediction

San Lorenzo 0 – 2 Boca Juniors

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Boca Juniors 44.7% 2.24 -5.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 77.4% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score No 68.5% 1.46 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.7% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2San Lorenzo23.0%
Draw32.3%
Boca Juniors44.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.522.6%
Under 2.577.4%
Both teams to scoreYes31.5%
No68.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.3%
12 (either side)67.7%
X2 (draw or away)77.0%
Handicap -1Boca Juniors win15.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.5%
Loss59.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-020.7%
0-117.7%
1-113.8%

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors stats

San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors recent form

newest first
San Lorenzo DWLDWL
Boca Juniors DWWDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors going into this match

league record before kick-off

San Lorenzo record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boca Juniors record

  • They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3San Lorenzo wins 2Draws 4Boca Juniors wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-11Boca JuniorsSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2024-08-18Boca JuniorsSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina3-2
2024-03-30Boca JuniorsSan LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional2-1
2023-11-08San LorenzoBoca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional1-1
2023-04-12San LorenzoBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2022-07-09San LorenzoBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2021-07-28Boca JuniorsSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2019-09-21San LorenzoBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2019-03-10Boca JuniorsSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.0%, draw 30.9%, away 46.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.14 3.11 2.04
Bet365 4.20 3.00 2.05
BetVictor 4.10 3.10 2.05
Betano 4.15 3.10 2.07
Betfair 4.00 3.00 2.00
Marathonbet 4.05 3.05 2.00
Pinnacle 4.34 3.10 2.08
SBO 3.67 2.91 2.03
William Hill 4.00 2.90 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.10 ▲ +0.30
X 3.05 ▲ +0.05
2 2.04 ▼ -0.11

14 snapshots recorded, from .