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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Independiente vs San Lorenzo

1 – 1 Full time

6′Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini
7′Juan Migue Arrayago
26′Iván Marcone
45′Ignacio Perruzzi AmbrosiniEzequiel Herrera
45′Teo Rodríguez PaganoMathías de Ritis
51′Facundo Farías
65′Santiago Gabriel Montiel
72′Matías AbaldoJosias Palais
72′Maximiliano MezaLautaro Millán
72′Alexis·CuelloEnzo Alan Salas
80′Iván MarconeRubén David Martínez
80′Chimy ÁvilaFelipe Tempone
80′Carlos Manuel InsaurraldeJuan Rattalino
86′Guzman corujo
88′Mateo Pérez CurciIván Morales
90′Ezequiel Herrera

Libertadores de America, Buenos AiresReferee: Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa, Argentina

Independiente 42%
Draw 33%
San Lorenzo 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

23 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 3
66 Possession % 34
8 Corners 6
12 Fouls 17
7 Offsides 0
2 Saves 4
425 Accurate passes 173

Independiente vs San Lorenzo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente vs San Lorenzo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependienteDrawSan Lorenzo
Model36.4%39.0%24.6%
Market44.4%31.4%24.2%
Final42.4%33.3%24.3%
Edge-8.0%+7.6%+0.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / San Lorenzo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 24% 13% 1 18% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 76%
2+ goals 45%
3+ goals 19%
No goals 24%

Independiente and San Lorenzo expected goals

Independiente 0.85
San Lorenzo 0.65

Total expected goals: 1.49

Independiente and San Lorenzo attack and defence ratings

Independiente

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.15 +15%

San Lorenzo

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independiente vs San Lorenzo: result vs prediction

Independiente 1 – 1 San Lorenzo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Independiente vs San Lorenzo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente 42.4% 2.36 -8.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81.1% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score No 71.6% 1.40 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.6% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente42.4%
Draw33.3%
San Lorenzo24.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.518.9%
Under 2.581.1%
Both teams to scoreYes28.4%
No71.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.7%
12 (either side)66.7%
X2 (draw or away)57.6%
Handicap -1Independiente win12.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss63.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-023.7%
1-017.8%
1-113.5%

Independiente vs San Lorenzo stats

Independiente and San Lorenzo recent form

newest first
Independiente WLDWLL
San Lorenzo WLDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente and San Lorenzo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independiente record

  • They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Lorenzo record

  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente vs San Lorenzo head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Independiente wins 6Draws 0San Lorenzo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02San LorenzoIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2025-09-21IndependienteSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2025-03-08San LorenzoIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2024-08-03IndependienteSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2023-04-01San LorenzoIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2022-06-04San LorenzoIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2021-12-05IndependienteSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2019-11-03IndependienteSan LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2019-02-02San LorenzoIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente vs San Lorenzo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 31.8%, away 23.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.96 2.96 4.45
1xBet 2.15 2.96 4.00
888Sport 2.00 2.90 4.00
Bet365 2.10 3.00 4.00
BetVictor 2.15 3.00 3.80
Betano 2.12 3.00 4.05
Betfair 2.10 3.00 3.80
Dafabet 2.00 2.90 4.30
Marathonbet 2.11 2.91 3.92
SBO 2.08 2.68 3.39
Unibet 1.96 3.10 4.30
William Hill 2.10 2.80 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▲ +0.10
X 2.98 ▲ +0.06
2 3.86 ▼ -0.47

14 snapshots recorded, from .