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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield

1 – 1 Full time

27′Ronaldo Martinez
59′Emanuel MammanaLisandro Magallán
60′Juan Cruz PolicellaÁlex Zahir Verón
60′Rodrigo HerreraJerónimo Gómez Mattar
62′Simón Escobar
67′Santiago Germán Solari FerreyraWalter Nunez
80′Rodrigo AliendroLuca Feler
81′Ronaldo MartinezDilan Godoy
85′Luca RegiardoJuan Ignacio Ramírez
85′Facundo Samuel GuchAlan Soñora
88′Manuel LanziniClaudio Baeza
90′Alan Soñora

Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, RosarioReferee: Nicolas Ramirez, Argentina

Newells Old Boys 34%
Draw 33%
Velez Sarsfield 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 1
53 Possession % 47
8 Corners 2
13 Fouls 13
5 Offsides 2
0 Saves 3
324 Accurate passes 290

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewells Old BoysDrawVelez Sarsfield
Model35.0%35.3%29.7%
Market33.3%32.1%34.6%
Final33.7%32.9%33.3%
Edge+1.7%+3.2%-4.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Newells Old Boys

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newells Old Bo ↓ / Velez Sarsfiel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 18% 13% 1 14% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 82%
2+ goals 56%
3+ goals 27%
No goals 18%

Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield expected goals

Newells Old Boys 0.96
Velez Sarsfield 0.86

Total expected goals: 1.82

Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield attack and defence ratings

Newells Old Boys

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Velez Sarsfield

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield: result vs prediction

Newells Old Boys 1 – 1 Velez Sarsfield

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newells Old Boys 33.7% 2.97 +1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 72.6% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score No 63.1% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 67.1% 1.49 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.0% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newells Old Boys33.7%
Draw32.9%
Velez Sarsfield33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527.4%
Under 2.572.6%
Both teams to scoreYes36.9%
No63.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)67.1%
X2 (draw or away)66.3%
Handicap -1Newells Old Boys win13.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss65.0%
Correct score (top 3)0-017.6%
1-114.7%
1-014.2%

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield stats

Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield recent form

newest first
Newells Old Boys DDWWLD
Velez Sarsfield WDDDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield going into this match

league record before kick-off

Newells Old Boys record

  • They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.

Velez Sarsfield record

  • They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Newells Old Boys wins 1Draws 6Velez Sarsfield wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-04Velez SarsfieldNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2024-05-21Velez SarsfieldNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2023-02-03Newells Old BoysVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2022-09-03Velez SarsfieldNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2021-10-09Newells Old BoysVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2021-02-13Velez SarsfieldNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2021-01-03Newells Old BoysVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2019-08-24Velez SarsfieldNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina3-1
2018-08-10Velez SarsfieldNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.1%, draw 32.0%, away 34.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.85 2.94 2.64
1xBet 2.90 2.91 2.74
888Sport 2.80 2.75 2.63
Bet365 2.80 3.00 2.75
BetVictor 2.80 3.00 2.70
Betano 2.90 2.95 2.72
Betfair 2.75 3.00 2.70
Dafabet 2.85 2.90 2.65
Marathonbet 2.85 2.85 2.70
Pinnacle 2.97 2.94 2.82
SBO 2.56 2.73 2.54
Superbet 2.90 2.95 2.72
Unibet 3.10 3.00 2.40
William Hill 2.80 2.80 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.83 ▲ +0.08
X 2.92 —
2 2.72 ▼ -0.05

14 snapshots recorded, from .