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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P.

1 – 0 Full time

25′Thiago Silvero
33′Alexis Castro
40′R. Martinez
45′Tiago Tomas Palacios
46′Gabriel NevesL. Piovi
46′B. AguirreJ. Correa
47′Edwuin Cetre
56′Lucas Piovi
65′J. PolicellaM. Lanzini
65′A. GaichG. Carrillo
65′E. CetreJ. Burgos
73′Matías Pellegrini
73′L. RobertoneL. Feler
73′R. MartinezT. Aguirre
77′L. Gonzalez PirezS. Nunez
90′Joaquín Correa
90′M. PellegriniM. Arias

Jose Amalfitani, Buenos AiresReferee: P. Dovalo

Velez Sarsfield 40%
Draw 32%
Estudiantes L.P. 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 2
45 Possession % 55
5 Corners 1
16 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 4
2 Saves 2
249 Accurate passes 346

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P.

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVelez SarsfieldDrawEstudiantes L.P.
Model37.2%33.4%29.5%
Market40.4%31.9%27.7%
Final39.6%32.3%28.2%
Edge-3.2%+1.5%+1.7%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Velez Sarsfiel ↓ / Estudiantes L. → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 11% 1 13% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes L.P. expected goals

Velez Sarsfield 1.08
Estudiantes L.P. 0.93

Total expected goals: 2.00

Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes L.P. attack and defence ratings

Velez Sarsfield

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Estudiantes L.P.

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P.: result vs prediction

Velez Sarsfield 1 – 0 Estudiantes L.P.

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Velez Sarsfield 39.6% 2.53 -3.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.8% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Velez Sarsfield39.6%
Draw32.3%
Estudiantes L.P.28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%
Both teams to scoreYes41.2%
No58.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)67.7%
X2 (draw or away)60.4%
Handicap -1Velez Sarsfield win15.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss62.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-014.8%
1-114.8%
1-013.1%

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. stats

Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes L.P. recent form

newest first
Velez Sarsfield DDDDDW
Estudiantes L.P. DWLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes L.P. going into this match

league record before kick-off

Velez Sarsfield record

  • They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Estudiantes L.P. record

  • They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Velez Sarsfield wins 2Draws 3Estudiantes L.P. wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-02Estudiantes L.P.Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2025-07-08Estudiantes L.P.Velez SarsfieldSuper Copa International0-2
2024-12-22Velez SarsfieldEstudiantes L.P.Trofeo de Campeones de la Superliga0-3
2024-09-24Velez SarsfieldEstudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina2-0
2024-05-05Estudiantes L.P.Velez SarsfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional1-1
2023-05-08Estudiantes L.P.Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina2-0
2022-10-17Velez SarsfieldEstudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina4-0
2022-05-24Velez SarsfieldEstudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores4-0
2022-04-08Estudiantes L.P.Velez SarsfieldCONMEBOL Libertadores4-1
2022-03-07Velez SarsfieldEstudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 32.0%, away 27.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.32 2.90 3.40
1xBet 2.36 2.98 3.40
Bet365 2.35 2.90 3.50
BetVictor 2.30 3.10 3.40
Betano 2.40 2.92 3.45
Betfair 2.30 3.00 3.30
Dafabet 2.33 2.90 3.35
Marathonbet 2.32 2.93 3.34
Pinnacle 2.37 3.04 3.47
SBO 2.22 2.76 2.97
Unibet 2.45 2.95 3.10
William Hill 2.30 2.80 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.33 ▲ +0.08
X 2.96 ▲ +0.08
2 3.40 ▼ -0.12

17 snapshots recorded, from .