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Copa Argentina · Full time ·Round of 16

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors

0 – 0 Full time

41′M. Pellegrini
54′R. Aliendro
61′A. VeronD. Godoy
61′Miguel MerentielE. Valencia
70′R. MartinezS. Escobar
74′D. Godoy
75′S. VillaL. Flores
82′L. RobertoneL. Feler
82′M. LanziniJ. Policella
85′F. Herrera
87′A. VelascoK. Zenon
87′L. ParedesCarlos Palacios
90′A. Montero
120′L. Blanco
120′K. Zenon
120′J. Garcia
120′S. Escobar
120′L. Flores
120′R. Aliendro
120′Carlos Palacios

Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, CordobaReferee: S. Zunino

Velez Sarsfield 31%
Draw 30%
Boca Juniors 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVelez SarsfieldDrawBoca Juniors
Model47.9%30.7%21.4%
Market24.9%29.6%45.5%
Final30.6%29.9%39.5%
Edge+23.0%+1.1%-24.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Boca Juniors

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Velez Sarsfiel ↓ / Boca Juniors → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 8% 1 14% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

Velez Sarsfield and Boca Juniors expected goals

Velez Sarsfield 1.34
Boca Juniors 0.81

Total expected goals: 2.15

Velez Sarsfield and Boca Juniors attack and defence ratings

Velez Sarsfield

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Boca Juniors

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors: result vs prediction

Velez Sarsfield 0 – 0 Boca Juniors

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 16 fixtures

Copa Argentina

Before and after this match

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Boca Juniors 39.5% 2.53 -24.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.7% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score No 57.8% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.1% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 78.6% 1.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Velez Sarsfield30.6%
Draw29.9%
Boca Juniors39.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.3%
Under 2.563.7%
Both teams to scoreYes42.2%
No57.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.5%
12 (either side)70.1%
X2 (draw or away)69.4%
Handicap -1Boca Juniors win7.1%
Push (exactly one goal)14.3%
Loss78.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.4%
1-113.9%
0-012.9%

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors stats

Velez Sarsfield and Boca Juniors recent form

newest first
Velez Sarsfield DDDDWW
Boca Juniors WDWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Velez Sarsfield wins 2Draws 4Boca Juniors wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-08Boca JuniorsVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2026-02-09Velez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2024-11-28Boca JuniorsVelez SarsfieldCopa Argentina3-4
2024-06-14Boca JuniorsVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2023-02-26Velez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2022-10-02Boca JuniorsVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2022-04-10Velez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2021-10-24Velez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina2-0
2021-03-08Velez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-7

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.9%, draw 29.6%, away 45.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.60 3.15 2.10
1xBet 3.88 3.08 2.10
Bet365 3.60 3.30 2.05
BetVictor 3.50 3.10 2.05
Betano 3.85 3.20 2.00
Betfair 3.90 3.25 1.95
Dafabet 3.65 3.20 2.16
Marathonbet 4.15 3.08 1.95
Pinnacle 4.10 3.09 1.99
SBO 3.66 3.05 1.97
Superbet 3.75 3.20 2.05
Unibet 3.80 3.15 2.08
William Hill 3.60 2.90 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.75 ▼ -0.62
X 3.15 ▼ -0.14
2 2.05 ▲ +0.20

20 snapshots recorded, from .