Liga Profesional Argentina
·
Full time
·Clausura - 7
Boca Juniors
vs
Lanus
1 – 0 Full time
Boca Juniors
55%
Draw
27%
Lanus
18%
Boca Juniors vs Lanus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs Lanus
| Probability | Boca Juniors | Draw | Lanus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.2% | 21.9% | 12.9% |
| Market | 51.6% | 28.6% | 19.9% |
| Final | 55.0% | 26.9% | 18.1% |
| Edge | +13.7% | -6.7% | -6.9% |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Boca Juniors below the model: +13.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
Boca Juniors and Lanus expected goals
Boca Juniors
2.06
Lanus
0.81
Total expected goals: 2.87
Boca Juniors and Lanus attack and defence ratings
Boca Juniors
Attack
1.36 +36%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Lanus
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.33 +33%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Boca Juniors vs Lanus: result vs prediction
Boca Juniors 1 – 0 Lanus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
- Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento Junin — match page
- Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield
- Rosario Central v Gimnasia L.P. — match page
- Huracan vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Belgrano Cordoba
- Talleres Cordoba v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page
- Banfield vs River Plate — team news & stats
- Argentinos JRS vs Aldosivi
Before and after this match
Boca Juniors vs Lanus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 55.0% | 1.82 | +13.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 55.0% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Lanus | 18.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 41.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 34.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.4% |
Boca Juniors vs Lanus stats
Boca Juniors and Lanus recent form
| Boca Juniors |
DWDWDW |
| Lanus |
DLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boca Juniors and Lanus going into this match
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Lanus record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boca Juniors vs Lanus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Boca Juniors wins
4Draws
2Lanus wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Lanus | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | Boca Juniors | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Lanus | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-19 | Lanus | Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-23 | Boca Juniors | Lanus | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-10 | Boca Juniors | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-15 | Lanus | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2022-04-17 | Boca Juniors | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-09 | Boca Juniors | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 4-2 |
| 2021-05-02 | Boca Juniors | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Boca Juniors vs Lanus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 28.8%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.85 | 3.25 | 4.55 |
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.88 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.25 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.35 | 4.80 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 2.89 | 3.94 |
| Superbet | 1.87 | 3.30 | 4.65 |
| Unibet | 1.73 | 3.30 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.83 ▲ +0.11
X
3.30 ▲ +0.07
2
4.75 ▼ -0.80
14 snapshots recorded, from .