Liga Profesional Argentina
·
Full time
·Clausura - 7
Union Santa Fe
vs
Sarmiento Junin
4 – 1 Full time
Union Santa Fe
49%
Draw
27%
Sarmiento Junin
25%
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin
| Probability | Union Santa Fe | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.1% | 24.8% | 36.0% |
| Market | 52.1% | 27.2% | 20.7% |
| Final | 48.8% | 26.6% | 24.6% |
| Edge | -13.0% | -2.3% | +15.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
5%
Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
Union Santa Fe
1.71
Sarmiento Junin
1.63
Total expected goals: 3.34
Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin attack and defence ratings
Union Santa Fe
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
1.36 +36%
Sarmiento Junin
Attack
1.38 +38%
Defence
1.24 +24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin: result vs prediction
Union Santa Fe 4 – 1 Sarmiento Junin
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
- Boca Juniors vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield
- Rosario Central v Gimnasia L.P. — match page
- Huracan vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Belgrano Cordoba
- Talleres Cordoba v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page
- Banfield vs River Plate — team news & stats
- Argentinos JRS vs Aldosivi
Before and after this match
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 48.8% | 2.05 | -13.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 48.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 24.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union Santa Fe win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin stats
Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin recent form
| Union Santa Fe |
WLLWLD |
| Sarmiento Junin |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin going into this match
Union Santa Fe record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Union Santa Fe wins
1Draws
3Sarmiento Junin wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Sarmiento Junin | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-29 | Sarmiento Junin | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-02 | Sarmiento Junin | Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Union Santa Fe | Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-15 | Union Santa Fe | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-08 | Union Santa Fe | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-27 | Sarmiento Junin | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Sarmiento Junin | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-4 |
| 2021-03-27 | Union Santa Fe | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2016-11-01 | Union Santa Fe | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 27.2%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 3.48 | 4.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.45 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.42 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.52 | 4.52 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.11 | 3.78 |
| Superbet | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Unibet | 1.77 | 3.45 | 4.70 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.80 —
X
3.45 ▲ +0.01
2
4.52 ▲ +0.02
7 snapshots recorded, from .