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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba

3 – 2 Full time

13′Leonel Mosevich
25′Brahian Cuello
28′Emilio Giaccone
37′Fernando Alarcon
44′Matías Gallardo
48′Cristian Tarragona
58′Jhon CórdobaJeremías Ezequiel Lázaro
58′Matías TisseraNicolás Guerra
62′Emilio GiacconeJoaquin Mosqueira
70′Brahian CuelloMisael Aguirre
70′Marcelo EstigarribaErik Ramirez
73′Jonathan GalvánHernán De La Fuente
73′Gustavo AbregúJuan Ignacio Méndez
73′Giuliano CeratoFacundo Ezquel Suarez
74′Misael Aguirre
83′Alex Luna
87′Hernán De La Fuente
90′Cristian Tarragona
90′Juan PintadoNazareno Garcia Fazzi
90′Lucas MenossiMateo Peresutti
90′Matías Gallardo
90′Facundo Ezquel Suarez

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera CruzReferee: Nicolas Lamolina, Argentina

Union Santa Fe 32%
Draw 32%
Instituto Cordoba 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 2
43 Possession % 57
2 Corners 7
6 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0
0 Saves 1
221 Accurate passes 308

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnion Santa FeDrawInstituto Cordoba
Model25.8%32.3%42.0%
Market34.3%32.0%33.7%
Final32.2%32.1%35.8%
Edge-8.6%+0.3%+8.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Instituto Cordoba

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Instituto Cordoba below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Union Santa Fe ↓ / Instituto Cord → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 14% 9% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 63%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Union Santa Fe and Instituto Cordoba expected goals

Union Santa Fe 0.88
Instituto Cordoba 1.20

Total expected goals: 2.08

Union Santa Fe and Instituto Cordoba attack and defence ratings

Union Santa Fe

Attack 1.46 +46%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Instituto Cordoba

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.53 -47%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba: result vs prediction

Union Santa Fe 3 – 2 Instituto Cordoba

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Instituto Cordoba 35.8% 2.80 +8.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65.6% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score No 57.8% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 67.9% 1.47 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.0% 1.72 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Union Santa Fe32.2%
Draw32.1%
Instituto Cordoba35.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.4%
Under 2.565.6%
Both teams to scoreYes42.2%
No57.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.2%
12 (either side)67.9%
X2 (draw or away)67.8%
Handicap -1Instituto Cordoba win18.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss58.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-013.9%
0-113.7%

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba stats

Union Santa Fe and Instituto Cordoba recent form

newest first
Union Santa Fe WWLLWL
Instituto Cordoba WDDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union Santa Fe and Instituto Cordoba going into this match

league record before kick-off

Union Santa Fe record

  • They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Instituto Cordoba record

  • They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Union Santa Fe wins 2Draws 1Instituto Cordoba wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-01Instituto CordobaUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2025-08-15Instituto CordobaUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina0-4
2025-02-14Union Santa FeInstituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2024-05-18Instituto CordobaUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2023-02-06Union Santa FeInstituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2014-04-18Union Santa FeInstituto CordobaPrimera Nacional2-0
2013-10-19Instituto CordobaUnion Santa FePrimera Nacional1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 32.0%, away 33.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.72 2.94 2.76
1xBet 2.79 2.96 2.80
Bet365 2.80 2.90 2.80
BetVictor 2.75 3.00 2.75
Betano 2.80 2.95 2.82
Betfair 2.63 3.00 2.80
Dafabet 2.75 2.90 2.75
Marathonbet 2.74 2.91 2.75
Pinnacle 2.85 2.97 2.85
SBO 2.58 2.88 2.66
Superbet 2.77 2.95 2.82
Unibet 2.50 3.05 2.88
William Hill 2.62 2.80 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 ▲ +0.25
X 2.95 ▼ -0.06
2 2.80 ▼ -0.12

12 snapshots recorded, from .