CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2026-09-10T00:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Quarter-finals

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians

1 – 1 Full time

4′			A. Castro
6′			F. Angileri
10′			Kaio Cesar
28′			G. Carrillo
28′			Breno Bidon
32′			G. Benedetti
33′			Gustavo Henrique
49′			Kaio Cesar
61′			B. RodriguezPerez Fabricio
71′			A. CarrilloCharles Rigon
79′			G. BenedettiE. Meza
86′			J. BurgosE. Cetre
86′			L. PioviJ. Elias
86′			E. Mancuso
87′			R. GarroM. Pereira
90′			M. DepayPedro Raul

Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La PlataReferee: Esteban Ostojich, Uruguay

Estudiantes L.P.

46%

Draw

32%

Corinthians

22%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
51	Possession %	49
5	Corners	1
16	Fouls	18
2	Offsides	0
2	Saves	5
326	Accurate passes	311

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Estudiantes L.P.	Draw	Corinthians
Model	53.5%	30.5%	15.9%
Market	43.7%	32.8%	23.6%
Final	46.1%	32.2%	21.7%
Edge	+9.9%	-2.2%	-7.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Estudiantes L.P.

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.62.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Estudiantes L.P. below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

85%

2+ goals

60%

3+ goals

32%

No goals

15%

Estudiantes L.P. and Corinthians expected goals

Estudiantes L.P.

1.36

Corinthians

0.62

Total expected goals: 1.98

Estudiantes L.P. and Corinthians attack and defence ratings

Estudiantes L.P.

Attack

1.06 +6%

Defence

0.78 -22%

Corinthians

Attack

0.88 -12%

Defence

0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians: result vs prediction

Estudiantes L.P. 1 – 1 Corinthians

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Fluminense vs Platense — team news & stats · 2026-09-08
Palmeiras v LDU de Quito — match page · 2026-09-09
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Fluminense vs Platense — team news & stats · 2026-09-15
Palmeiras v LDU de Quito — match page · 2026-09-16
Corinthians vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2026-09-17
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle · 2026-09-18

Before and after this match

Estudiantes L.P., previous: Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P.: odds and pick
Estudiantes L.P., next: Estudiantes L.P. – Platense, 2026-09-12
Corinthians, previous: Corinthians – Chapecoense-sc, 2026-09-06
Corinthians, next: Flamengo v Corinthians analysis

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Estudiantes L.P.	46.1%	2.17	+9.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	68.3%	1.46	—	—
Both teams to score	No	64.5%	1.55	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.3%	1.28	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	46.4%	2.16	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Estudiantes L.P.	46.1%
	Draw	32.2%
	Corinthians	21.7%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31.7%
	Under 2.5	68.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	35.5%
	No	64.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.3%
	12 (either side)	67.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	53.9%
Handicap -1	Estudiantes L.P. win	26.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	26.7%
	Loss	46.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-0	17.6%
	0-0	15.0%
	1-1	12.8%

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians stats

Estudiantes L.P. and Corinthians recent form

newest first

Estudiantes L.P.	LDWLWW
Corinthians	LLLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estudiantes L.P. and Corinthians going into this match

league record before kick-off

Estudiantes L.P. record

They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Corinthians record

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Estudiantes L.P. wins 0Draws 1Corinthians wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2023-08-30	Estudiantes L.P.	Corinthians	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	1-0
2023-08-23	Corinthians	Estudiantes L.P.	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 32.8%, away 23.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.16	2.80	4.00
1xBet	2.19	2.96	4.04
888Sport	2.15	2.75	3.80
Bet365	2.15	2.88	4.00
BetVictor	2.15	2.88	4.10
Betano	2.20	2.92	4.35
Betfair	2.20	2.88	3.70
Dafabet	2.20	2.90	4.10
Marathonbet	2.16	2.88	3.82
Pinnacle	2.16	2.93	4.14
SBO	2.16	2.69	3.62
Superbet	2.17	2.90	4.00
Unibet	2.23	2.80	3.65
William Hill	2.15	2.75	3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.16 ▼ -0.04

X 2.88 ▼ -0.08

2 4.00 ▲ +0.40

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-04T08:10:01Z.