CONMEBOL Libertadores
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Palmeiras
vs
LDU de Quito
3 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | Marlon Freitas | ||
| 15′ | Luis Segovia | ||
| 56′ | Sebastián GonzálezFernando Cornejo | ||
| 56′ | Janner CorozoAlexander Alvarado | ||
| 61′ | José Manuel López | ||
| 66′ | Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira | ||
| 67′ | José Manuel LópezVitor Roque | ||
| 68′ | Juan rodriguez | ||
| 73′ | Vitor Roque | ||
| 80′ | Marcelo WeigandtJose Carabali | ||
| 84′ | Richard MinaDeyverson | ||
| 85′ | Jhon AriasFelipe Anderson | ||
| 89′ | Andreas PereiraMaurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 90′ | Michael Estrada | ||
| 90′ | Michael Estrada | ||
| 90′ | Michael Estrada | ||
| 91′ | Vitor Roque | ||
| 92′ | Deyverson | ||
| 93′ | Maurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 94′ | Joaquín Piquerez | ||
| 95′ | Michael Estrada | ||
| 97′ | Fernando Cornejo | ||
| 98′ | Felipe Anderson |
Palmeiras
42%
Draw
31%
LDU de Quito
27%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 31 | Possession % | 69 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 178 | Accurate passes | 487 |
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.6% | 31.0% | 12.4% |
| Market | 37.1% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| Final | 42.0% | 31.3% | 26.7% |
| Edge | +19.4% | -0.5% | -19.0% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
82%
2+ goals
55%
3+ goals
27%
No goals
18%
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito expected goals
Palmeiras
1.31
LDU de Quito
0.48
Total expected goals: 1.79
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
0.61 -39%
LDU de Quito
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 3 – 2 LDU de Quito
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 42.0% | 2.38 | +19.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 42.0% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| LDU de Quito | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.9% |
| No | 71.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.5% | |
| Loss | 43.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 20.8% |
| 0-0 | 17.7% | |
| 2-0 | 14.4% |
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito stats
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito recent form
| Palmeiras |
WWDDDW |
| LDU de Quito |
DLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and LDU de Quito going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LDU de Quito record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
2Palmeiras wins
0Draws
1LDU de Quito wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Palmeiras | LDU de Quito | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Palmeiras | LDU de Quito | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | LDU de Quito | Palmeiras | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 31.5%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.14 | 3.04 |
| 888Sport | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.05 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 3.04 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 2.98 | 3.14 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 2.78 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.54 ▼ -0.36
X
3.00 ▼ -0.20
2
3.00 ▲ +0.49
14 snapshots recorded, from .