Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Corinthians
vs
Chapecoense-sc
1 – 2 Full time
| 1′ | Yago Felipe | ||
| 2′ | Matheus Bidu | ||
| 40′ | Marcinho | ||
| 45′ | Tulio Eduardo | ||
| 57′ | Giovanni Augusto | ||
| 61′ | Giovanni AugustoM. Carvalho | ||
| 61′ | TulioY. Bolasie | ||
| 66′ | AllanJ. Lingard | ||
| 66′ | M. DepayGui Negao | ||
| 73′ | Kauan | ||
| 74′ | Yago FelipeEverton | ||
| 74′ | HeitorBruno Matias | ||
| 77′ | Marcinho | ||
| 82′ | MarcinhoDavid Antunes | ||
| 84′ | A. CarrilloM. Pereira | ||
| 84′ | R. GarroPedro Raul | ||
| 90′ | Kaio CesarDieguinho |
Corinthians
64%
Draw
23%
Chapecoense-sc
13%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 617 | Accurate passes | 355 |
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc
| Probability | Corinthians | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.7% | 26.6% | 14.7% |
| Market | 65.4% | 21.8% | 12.8% |
| Final | 63.7% | 23.0% | 13.2% |
| Edge | -6.7% | +4.8% | +1.9% |
Why Corinthians
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
69%
3+ goals
41%
No goals
11%
Corinthians and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
Corinthians
1.63
Chapecoense-sc
0.70
Total expected goals: 2.33
Corinthians and Chapecoense-sc attack and defence ratings
Corinthians
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Chapecoense-sc
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.34 +34%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc: result vs prediction
Corinthians 1 – 2 Chapecoense-sc
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 63.7% | 1.57 | -6.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 63.7% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.5% |
| No | 58.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 41.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.8% |
| 2-0 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc stats
Corinthians and Chapecoense-sc recent form
| Corinthians |
LLWLDW |
| Chapecoense-sc |
LWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Corinthians and Chapecoense-sc going into this match
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 2 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Corinthians wins
2Draws
2Chapecoense-sc wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Chapecoense-sc | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2021-11-02 | Corinthians | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-09 | Chapecoense-sc | Corinthians | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2019-10-02 | Chapecoense-sc | Corinthians | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2019-05-01 | Corinthians | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2019-04-25 | Corinthians | Chapecoense-sc | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2019-04-18 | Chapecoense-sc | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2018-11-25 | Corinthians | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2018-08-16 | Chapecoense-sc | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
| 2018-08-12 | Chapecoense-sc | Corinthians | Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.4%, draw 21.8%, away 12.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.46 | 7.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.33 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.58 | 7.84 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.44 ▲ +0.07
X
4.33 ▼ -0.34
2
7.40 ▼ -1.05
4 snapshots recorded, from .