Coritiba
vs
Mirassol
1 – 2 Full time
| 27′ | Denilson Alves Borges | ||
| 27′ | Daniel Borges | ||
| 34′ | João Victor Carroll Santana | ||
| 34′ | Thiago Santos | ||
| 58′ | Thiago SantosVitor Gonçalves Tissi | ||
| 59′ | Breno LopesPaulo Roberto | ||
| 59′ | JacyMaicon | ||
| 61′ | Pedro Rocha | ||
| 63′ | JP Chermont | ||
| 64′ | Gustavo Henric da Silva | ||
| 73′ | JP ChermontFelipe Jonatan | ||
| 76′ | Gustavo Henric da SilvaFernandinho | ||
| 77′ | Alesson dos Santos BatistaShaylon Kallyson Cardozo | ||
| 79′ | FabinhoJosué | ||
| 82′ | Denilson Alves BorgesChico Kim | ||
| 82′ | WallissonGustavo Cazonatti | ||
| 84′ | Bruno Santos de Oliveira | ||
| 87′ | Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira AlveGabriel Knesowitsch | ||
| 90′ | Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 5 |
| 340 | Accurate passes | 406 |
Coritiba vs Mirassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Mirassol
| Probability | Coritiba | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.6% | 25.1% | 15.3% |
| Market | 39.6% | 29.6% | 30.8% |
| Final | 44.6% | 28.4% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +19.9% | -4.5% | -15.5% |
Why Coritiba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Coritiba below the model: +19.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coritiba and Mirassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Coritiba and Mirassol attack and defence ratings
Coritiba
Mirassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Coritiba vs Mirassol: result vs prediction
Coritiba 1 – 2 Mirassol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coritiba vs Mirassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 44.6% | 2.24 | +19.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 44.6% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Mirassol | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coritiba win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 40.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.5% |
| 2-0 | 12.0% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Coritiba vs Mirassol stats
Coritiba and Mirassol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coritiba and Mirassol going into this match
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
Coritiba vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Mirassol | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-06 | Mirassol | Coritiba | Serie B | 4-1 |
| 2024-07-20 | Coritiba | Mirassol | Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Coritiba vs Mirassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 29.3%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.28 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.30 | 3.13 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.20 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.27 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .