Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Sao Paulo
vs
Atletico-MG
2 – 0 Full time
| 45′ | Reinier Jesus CarvalhoMateo Cassierra | ||
| 45′ | Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteFrederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos | ||
| 45′ | Kevin CastañoVitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza | ||
| 63′ | DanielzinhoPablo Maia | ||
| 63′ | Gustavo SantanaJonathan Calleri | ||
| 64′ | WendellIago Amaral Borduchi | ||
| 67′ | Luciano | ||
| 69′ | Iago Amaral Borduchi | ||
| 70′ | Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da CostaAlan Minda | ||
| 80′ | Artur Victor GuimarãesDjhordney Ferreira | ||
| 81′ | Victor Hugo Gomes SilvaGustavo Scarpa | ||
| 85′ | LucianoAldemir Ferreira | ||
| 90′ | Djhordney Ferreira | ||
| 90′ | Tomás Cuello |
Sao Paulo
42%
Draw
30%
Atletico-MG
29%
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 16 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 3 |
| 451 | Accurate passes | 428 |
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.4% | 32.6% | 36.0% |
| Market | 45.0% | 28.8% | 26.2% |
| Final | 41.6% | 29.8% | 28.7% |
| Edge | -13.6% | +3.7% | +9.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
64%
3+ goals
35%
No goals
14%
Sao Paulo and Atletico-MG expected goals
Sao Paulo
1.01
Atletico-MG
1.10
Total expected goals: 2.11
Sao Paulo and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Atletico-MG
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.68 -32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG: result vs prediction
Sao Paulo 2 – 0 Atletico-MG
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 41.6% | 2.41 | -13.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 41.6% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Atletico-MG | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 12.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 68.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-1 | 12.0% |
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG stats
Sao Paulo and Atletico-MG recent form
| Sao Paulo |
WLWDDL |
| Atletico-MG |
WWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Atletico-MG going into this match
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Sao Paulo wins
4Draws
5Atletico-MG wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Sao Paulo | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Sao Paulo | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-13 | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-29 | Sao Paulo | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-12 | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-06 | Sao Paulo | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2022-11-02 | Sao Paulo | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 29.1%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.18 | 3.15 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.30 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.13 | 3.95 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.86 | 3.04 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.15 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.10 ▼ -0.05
X
3.27 ▲ +0.02
2
3.60 ▲ +0.18
17 snapshots recorded, from .