CONMEBOL Sudamericana
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Atletico-MG
vs
Santos
2 – 0 Full time
| 31′ | Willian Arao | ||
| 59′ | BernardVictor Hugo | ||
| 59′ | A. PreciadoA. Minda | ||
| 63′ | ThacianoArthur Melo | ||
| 68′ | C. Oliva | ||
| 79′ | M. CassierraReinier | ||
| 79′ | K. CastanoGustavo Scarpa | ||
| 82′ | B. RollheiserG. Caballero | ||
| 83′ | C. OlivaJoao Schmidt | ||
| 87′ | RodineiIgor Vinicius | ||
| 87′ | Gabriel BarbosaLima |
Atletico-MG
43%
Draw
31%
Santos
26%
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 494 | Accurate passes | 341 |
Atletico-MG vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Santos
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 30.9% | 23.5% |
| Market | 42.7% | 30.4% | 26.9% |
| Final | 43.4% | 30.5% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +0.5% | -3.4% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.87.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
37%
No goals
13%
Atletico-MG and Santos expected goals
Atletico-MG
1.31
Santos
0.87
Total expected goals: 2.19
Atletico-MG and Santos attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Santos
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico-MG vs Santos: result vs prediction
Atletico-MG 2 – 0 Santos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 43.4% | 2.30 | +3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 43.4% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Santos | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.5% |
Atletico-MG vs Santos stats
Atletico-MG and Santos recent form
| Atletico-MG |
LWWDDD |
| Santos |
WDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Santos going into this match
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Santos record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Atletico-MG wins
3Draws
3Santos wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-17 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-06 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2022-06-11 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-13 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2021-06-27 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2021-01-26 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 30.4%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.22 | 3.05 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.28 | 3.58 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.15 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.10 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.12 | 3.65 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 2.88 | 3.28 |
| Superbet | 2.27 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Unibet | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.21 ▲ +0.14
X
3.10 ▼ -0.17
2
3.50 ▼ -0.15
32 snapshots recorded, from .