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CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Full time ·Quarter-finals

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama

0 – 0 Full time

28′Claudio Spinelli
57′Alan Saldivia
57′E. RodriguezM. Lovera
68′Nuno Moreira
70′N. MoreiraDavid
71′C. SpinelliBruno Duarte
75′C. MaflaJ. Angulo
75′D. TorresA. Zapata
76′Jeison Angulo
77′Lucas PitonPaulo Henrique
77′J. RojasS. Sosa
82′Ramon RiqueTche Tche
84′Jhojan Torres
84′Emanuel Olivera
84′Marino Hinestroza
88′J. ObrianN. Bustos

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin, BogotaReferee: D. Herrera

Santa Fe 44%
Draw 30%
Vasco DA Gama 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 4
57 Possession % 43
5 Corners 5
8 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 0
4 Saves 2
364 Accurate passes 264

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySanta FeDrawVasco DA Gama
Model49.2%29.0%21.8%
Market42.7%30.5%26.8%
Final44.3%30.1%25.6%
Edge+6.5%-1.5%-5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Santa Fe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.90.
  • The market prices Santa Fe below the model: +6.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Santa Fe ↓ / Vasco DA Gama → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 7% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

Santa Fe 1.47
Vasco DA Gama 0.90

Total expected goals: 2.36

Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings

Santa Fe

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Vasco DA Gama

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama: result vs prediction

Santa Fe 0 – 0 Vasco DA Gama

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Before and after this match

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Santa Fe 44.3% 2.26 +6.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.0% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score No 53.2% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.8% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Santa Fe44.3%
Draw30.1%
Vasco DA Gama25.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%
Both teams to scoreYes46.8%
No53.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.4%
12 (either side)69.9%
X2 (draw or away)55.7%
Handicap -1Santa Fe win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.9%
Loss50.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
1-012.6%
0-010.7%

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama stats

Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama recent form

newest first
Santa Fe DWDDDD
Vasco DA Gama LWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vasco DA Gama record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 30.5%, away 26.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.08 3.05 3.80
1xBet 2.32 3.19 3.61
888Sport 2.20 2.90 3.40
Bet365 2.25 3.10 3.50
BetVictor 2.25 3.00 3.50
Betano 2.18 3.25 3.85
Betfair 2.20 3.00 3.50
Dafabet 2.27 3.15 3.50
Marathonbet 2.21 3.04 3.44
Pinnacle 2.29 3.12 3.55
SBO 2.16 2.94 3.25
Superbet 2.17 3.15 3.65
Unibet 2.20 3.10 3.40
William Hill 2.20 2.90 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▼ -0.01
X 3.08 ▼ -0.22
2 3.50 ▲ +0.25

14 snapshots recorded, from .